DeepNewz, mobile.
People-sourced. AI-powered. Unbiased News.
OptionProbability
Mana purchases (or spread between sweeps purchase & redemption)
Other
Interest on held cash
Fees from subsidizing or promoting markets
Transactions fees from trades
Selling data / API access / colocation
Job board / hiring program
Sales of digital goods
House rake on games (e.g. poker)
Subscription plan
On-site advertising
B2B income (e.g. setting up internal corporate markets)
Donations (e.g. Wikipedia)
43
31
11
3
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
OptionProbability
A second major version of the model has been released
It has a logo separate from the OpenAI logo
Video will include sound
For at least one day, the model was generally available to anyone in the United States willing to pay enough without waiting lists or "beta" programs
OpenAI will be sued over the model
It is discussed during a segment of "HatGPT"
By default, the generated videos will be watermarked
A competing model has challenged Sora's dominance in the text-to-video space
A post claiming Sora video is real will go viral with > 1 million engagements
A poll of Manifold users will say that 20% or less have made a Sora video in the last month
A video produced by the model has been used for widely spread misinformation, as reported by a major news outlet
It will still be trickable into replicating at least some popular copyrighted material (text prompt only)
It will be the most popular text to video tool (determined by google search trends)
It was trained on data created in a physics/game engine (eg Unreal Engine)
It has been referenced in a legal case about deepfakes
It will be free to use
It will be noticeably worse at or largely unable to generate fast-paced animation
A youtube video made only with Sora will get > 100M views
It has been integrated as a feature on a major social media platform
It will be pay-per-use (or credit based) as opposed to as part of a monthly subscription
It will be the SOTA for text to video
It prompts the Hard Fork Podcast to rant about AI model names
costs for an average 1 minute HD (or higher quality) video will be lower than $0.50
A major studio will use this in a movie or tv show
It will be jailbroken to make a porn video
At least 2 Manifold questions will contain a Sora-generated video in their header
It can be used during conversations with ChatGPT on the OpenAI website
it'll be legaly banned in at least one EU country
A poll of Manifold users will say that 30% or more have created a Sora video in the last month
A youtube movie >2h will be made with only Sora and splicing videos together will get > 10M views
Public access was revoked after release, even if it is later restored
The model has had a non-trivial effect on the everday life of the average American, as judged by @Bayesian
It can generate videos over 10 minutes long
OpenAI will lose a lawsuit over the model
Sora will be part of GPT model
Eliezer Yudkowsky has stated or implied that the current version or an obsolete version of the model poses or had posed an existential threat to civilization
The Sora line of models proves to be useful for purposes where the video is secondary, such as research into physics, medicine, and weather
A nyt bestselling author will release their own bestseller movie/tv adaptation using sora
There will be a new monthly subscription that includes sora and dalle for creatives
The Sora line of models are being used as simulators for legal investigations - including but not limited to predicting events leading to accidents and crimes
A third major version of the model has been released
It has been renamed
Full description of model architecture will be public
OpenAI will release the number of model parameters
It can create a fully coherent short film from a prompt (20-40 minutes)
A version of the model was the cause of the YES resolution of the "Weak AGI" Metaculus market
Eliezer Yudkowsky states or implies that future versions of the Sora line of models - specifically, by name - are an existential threat to civilization
It was accessible to the public before May 2024
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81
66
56
43
34
32
30
26
19
13
12
12
11
10
8
7
7
6
6
5
3
3
3
3
2
2
2
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
0
OptionProbability
Compatible with Switch 1 Joy-Cons (even if only Bluetooth)
Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games
Backwards compatible with digital Switch 1 games
Crossplay with Switch 1 in any first-party game released within the first 6 months after launch
Multiple launch SKUs
Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Mario" in the name
Name of the console contains the word "Switch"
The name of the console is correctly leaked over two weeks before it is revealed
Launch day system software includes a Mii maker
Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "World" in the name
Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) that also came out/is coming out for Switch 1
Backwards compatible with physical Switch 1 games, AND allows you to play a better looking or performing version of at least one Switch 1 game with the original Switch 1 cartridge within 6 months of the console launching
Joy-Cons can be used as a mouse
A new pro controller will be released on the same day the console comes out
New SKU not available at launch available within one year after release
More than two themes before 2027
Any launch SKU has a MSRP not ending in "9.99" in the US
Name of the console contains the word "Super"
Name of the console contains the word "New"
Any launch SKU has an OLED screen
Over 180 days between reveal and release (July 15 deadline)
Revealed this week (before September 21st, 11:59:59pm ET)
Launch title (game released on the same day as the system) with "Zelda" in the name
Launch day system software includes an internet browser (general-purpose browser that deliberately allows access to the wider Web, like the 3DS or Wii U browser)
No launch SKU has 12GB RAM
No launch SKU has 256GB storage
Name of at least one launch SKU contains "XL"
The cheapest launch SKU costs ≤$300
Will have some kind of "achievements" or "trophies" system (under any name)
The Joy-Cons have inside-out tracking (via camera or LiDAR)
Has a social media or video-sharing service called Vidmiio (announced or available by launch)
First-party Joy-Cons attach or detach using electromagnets
A launch SKU has Joy-Cons that have a non-grayscale shell (as opposed to the black shells in the trailer).
100
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100
100
100
100
100
28
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionProbability
The case settles for more than $10 million before a verdict is reached.
The case settles before a verdict is reached.
NYT and OpenAI announce a partnership that goes beyond access to training data, such as the one OpenAI made with Politico.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2026.
New York Times wins at least $1 in damages via a verdict.
Disney sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
The case appears before the Supreme Court.
Nintendo sues OpenAI for copyright infringement before the NYT case concludes.
OpenAI wins via an outright verdict in their favor.
The case settles for more than $100 million before a verdict is reached.
New York Times wins at least $10 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $100 million in damages via a verdict.
New York Times wins at least $1 billion in damages via a verdict.
The Supreme Court rules in favor of The New York Times and upholds damages and compensation with a net present value of $10 million or more, but does not order GPT-4 deleted.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2025.
The Supreme Court orders GPT-4 to be deleted, or OpenAI otherwise agrees to delete GPT-4 on the basis of this case.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted.
New York Times wins a verdict ordering GPT-4 to be deleted from the Supreme Court.
The case is fully resolved somehow, including all appeals, by the end of 2024.
53
47
36
35
33
33
27
27
17
14
13
12
5
5
5
4
0
0
0
OptionProbability
At least 10,000 concurrent players within first month of release
Launches in Q4 2024
Someone gets total level 9000 before Episode 5 is released
More than 21,272 concurrent players before Early Access ends
Launches in Q3 2024
Shut down within one year of release
After 1 month of release, Steam will list its overall reviews as "Overwhelmingly Positive" (at least 95% positive)
There will be PvP combat at launch
Official Linux support within a year of launch
Early Access on 5th November 2024
Out of Early Access 6 months after launch (6th May 2025)
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25
4
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OptionVotes
NO
YES
10462
9632
OptionProbability
Direct commercial flights to the EU resume
Central Bank interest rate (a.k.a. key rate) is less or equal 5% at some moment
Partial mobilization formally ends
Russia and Ukraine re-establish full diplomatic relations (embassies reopen)
New FSB director appointed
Amnesty for draft evasion announced
New prime minister appointed
Early State Duma elections called
Access to Instagram unblocked nationwide by Roskomnadzor
Constitutional amendments remove annexed Ukrainian regions from the Russian Federation
Russia militarily invades another country
Russia rejoins the Council of Europe
Major (>50k people) anti-government protests in Moscow
Vladimir Putin ceases to be the president of Russia
58
51
42
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36
34
31
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24
OptionProbability
Propose a 90% emission-reduction target for 2040 in a European Climate Law
Set up a President's Youth Advisory Board with young people from all Member States
Expand the Rule of Law Report to include a Single Market dimension and accession countries
Propose a European AI Research Council (CERN for AI)
Create a pan-European investment platform for affordable and sustainable housing with the European Investment Bank
Propose a new European Biotech Act
By the end of the mandate, energy prices will on average be lower (inflation-adjusted)
More than double Europol's staff over time
The next long-term budget will include a regime of conditionality for the Rule of Law
Triple the number of European Border and Coast Guards to 30,000
Respond to all of Parliament's Article 225 resolutions with legislative proposals
Implement a right to disconnect
Hold European Citizens' Panels every year
100
100
63
61
61
59
57
54
53
50
45
41
41
OptionProbability
by 2028 hytale will launch in open Early access
A game like vrchat will be made with godot and will launch in open Early access by 2028
I make a game by 2028 in OEA
97
50
36
OptionProbability
Exchange Server
Skype for Business Server
Visio
Visual Studio/Visual Basic
Visual Studio LightSwitch
Visual Studio App Center
Microsoft Office Access
Microsoft Exchange Server
Microsoft Office
OneDrive
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
3
3
OptionProbability
Platform for migrants to start legal & profitable microbusinesses.
Database of the Most Impactful Research Questions by Discipline and Cause Area
Leveraging biophysical techniques to improve the efficiency of successful pregnancies in older women
Research microeconomic disruptions caused by AGI
The Odyssean Institute
Mechanical Library
Educate the public about high impact causes
Science prediction markets for replicability
Free Our Knowledge: Improving scientific publishing through collective action
Researching low-input traditional agricultural techniques.
Growing human blood vessels in the lab to unlock replacement tissue/organ therapies
LLM Multi-Actor Tool to automate Economic Experiments
Building software to demystify land use regulations
Gather all formal demographic fertility and population projection methods into a single open source R package for academic, policy, and popular use
Psychosis in velocardiofacial syndrome (DiGeorge/22q11.2 deletion syndrome)
Conduct preliminary studies on the impact of MKP-2 on COVID-19 vaccine mediated depression
MPhil/PhD in Psychology to understand understand how issue polarisation arises from divergences in belief revision via Bayesian networks
Transform waste streams into biodegradable alternatives
H-Test: identifying a set of "blindspot" tasks for LLMs that doesn't scale (not inverse, close to no effect) with language training
Creating a swarm of robotic bees to either pollinate or spray pesticides
Create accessible synthesis of neuroscience insider knowledge
Conduct research on voice biomarkers, a promising early detection mechanism for mental illnesses, including Alzheimer’s, Parkinson's, depression, and more.
Build a digital marketplace and management platform to empower smallholder farmers in Kenya by reducing post-harvest food loss
Upgrade YIMBY messaging
Publish a book on Egan education for parents
Weather futures market for forecasting, insurance, and climate engineering.
Apply particle physics clustering to embedding space of LLM
Fund a detour on my PhD to improve brute force statistical tooling
Write three articles that integrate meta-analysis and meta-science
Quantifying the costs of the Jones Act
Run a public online Turing Test with a variety of models and prompts
Run a self-help program on WhatsApp to reduce depression in low and middle-income countries
Build an app to track ones impact on animal cruelty
Year one of AI Safety Tokyo
Strengthening digital health information system for epidemic control in Pakistan
Online videos of Fluidity Forum 2024 talks
Scaling Legal Impact for Chickens to make factory-farm cruelty a liability
Distribute HPMOR copies in Bangalore, India
An online science platform
Convert a hybrid car to chip wood and generate electricity
Start an online editorial journal focusing on paradigm development in psychiatry and psychology
News through prediction markets
A spaced-repetition first gamified learning platform
Vegans should have the right to eat in public institutions : help us turn our right into a reality
Art and Technology XR game providing Ecological and Social-Emotional Learning
Replicate social science research
Original Research Study on Effective Communication With Political Staffers
Empower Ukraine: Invest in Businesses Driving Positive Change
75
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47
40
37
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37
37
OptionProbability
Curse update released in 2025
Game is cancelled 😢
Game leaves early access in 2025
Game leaves early access in 2026
Game gets 1,000 Steam reviews before 2027
50
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50