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Prediction markets for Accreditation

Will a conscious computer be built before 2050?

Nov 12, 9:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

76.32%chance

131187

OptionVotes

NO

YES

858

36

Will UATX achieve full accreditation by the end of 2029?

Feb 2, 9:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

5895

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

980

Will Columbia University be a going concern on January 20th, 2029?

Apr 13, 2:17 AMJan 20, 11:59 PM

92.16%chance

9491

OptionVotes

NO

YES

343

29

Will Minerva University survive the next 10 years?

Jan 2, 10:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

93.19%chance

5261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

334

31

Which philosophy subfields will be represented by 3+ PhD-holders at Manifest 2026?

May 18, 11:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6247

OptionProbability

Applied Ethics

Decision Theory

Formal Epistemology

Metaethics

Philosophy of Mind

Philosophy of AI

Logic

Political Philosophy

Philosophy of Science

Philosophy of Language

History of Philosophy (non-ancient)

Ancient Philosophy

Continental Philosophy

Metaphysics

80

76

68

50

50

50

45

41

34

34

29

24

24

17

Will Minerva University survive the next 10 years?

Jan 2, 10:12 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

95.02%chance

3240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

310

23

Will I spend at least 10K USD trying to get a US visa by the end of 2026?

Jul 24, 3:18 AMDec 31, 7:00 AM

17.39%chance

5120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

63

Will AI-assisted coding replace manual coding as the default teaching approach in programming schools by 2036?

Jan 20, 9:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.31%chance

5118

OptionVotes

NO

YES

202

50

Will San Francisco City College be accredited on February 10, 2027?

Jan 17, 11:41 PMFeb 11, 7:59 AM

64.35%chance

899

OptionVotes

NO

YES

177

101

How many formal epistemologists will attend Manifest 2026?

May 18, 10:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

219

OptionProbability

3-5

1-2

0

6-10

10+

38

21

14

14

14

Will ACDC (https://www.uib.no/en/rs/acdc/174760/acdc-2025) still run by 2040?

Apr 18, 7:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will I attend the High-throughput microplastic identification and analysis workshop in 2026?

Nov 12, 8:33 PM

30

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