ACRED News

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

57.65%chance

18613578

OptionVotes

YES

2661

2381

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.74%chance

201289

OptionVotes

YES

1647

825

How much of Colorado will burn this wildfire season?

Mar 30, 3:09 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

4995

OptionProbability

> 95342 acres (recent average)

> 222916 (2013 total)

> 467424 (2018 total)

> 744120 (2020 total)

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

38.43%chance

12787

OptionVotes

YES

1040

974

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Jan 14, 8:44 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24786

OptionProbability

Colossal Biosciences goes out of business without officially canceling the project

Colossal Biosciences announces they are canceling the project

giving "birth" to a living woolly mammoth*

mammoth living to >1 years of age

creation of a functional artificial womb

breeding pair of mammoths*

growing an elephant or mammoth* fetus in an artificial womb

releasing a mammoth* into the wild, or a preserve larger than a few acres

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.75%chance

5670

OptionVotes

YES

1095

101

Will more acres burn in California in 2026 than 2025

Oct 28, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

74.65%chance

12623

OptionVotes

YES

172

If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?

Nov 22, 9:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

76.26%chance

13484

OptionVotes

YES

1353

854

Will Central Park lose an acre of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Apr 20, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.14%chance

10205

OptionVotes

YES

289

205

Will Central Park lose 5 acres of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Apr 20, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

22.33%chance

10185

OptionVotes

YES

402

193

>1k acres of public lands south of San Mateo County [eg Rancho Corral de Tierra] turned into private land btwn [2025-8]?

Nov 12, 8:43 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

55.24%chance

351

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will Esmeralda Land Company have >500 acres of land by EoY 2030

Oct 19, 5:46 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.25%chance

210

OptionVotes

YES

110

ACRED News

Prediction markets for ACRED

Prediction markets for ACRED

Prediction markets for ACRED

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.

How much of Colorado will burn this wildfire season?

Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?

What will happen during the woolly mammoth de-extinction project by 2050?

Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?

Will more acres burn in California in 2026 than 2025

If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?

Will Central Park lose an acre of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

Will Central Park lose 5 acres of park area to development or commercialization by the end of 2030?

>1k acres of public lands south of San Mateo County [eg Rancho Corral de Tierra] turned into private land btwn [2025-8]?

Will Esmeralda Land Company have >500 acres of land by EoY 2030

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