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Prediction markets for Across
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM
35%chance
18914872
OptionVotes
3617
1599
Will it be possible to search for text across ALL YouTube videos by 2026?
Mar 9, 3:42 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM
34.77%chance
175133
OptionVotes
1223
832
Will a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Jul 5, 9:50 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM
56.25%chance
334974
OptionVotes
1211
786
Across, 2025 a majority of EA funding rounds will have public forecasting questions/prediction markets to bet on whether grants will be given or whether grant goals will be met.
Sep 22, 6:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
4.76%chance
213789
OptionVotes
4147
600
Will Waymo give public driverless rides across the Golden Gate Bridge by the end of 2026?
Mar 17, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
16.23%chance
182096
OptionVotes
2099
610
In twenty years, the best evidence will suggest that sperm counts are substantially declining across most of the world
Jan 28, 2:49 AMJan 28, 5:59 AM
40%chance
271842
OptionVotes
1377
606
Will @EliezerYudkowsky profit on net across all #superconductivity markets?
Aug 9, 11:49 PMFeb 1, 12:59 PM
75.45%chance
151123
OptionVotes
1373
767
Vibe-coding software reaches 100M+ MAU (summed across all platforms) by 2026 EOY?
Oct 22, 8:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM
27.75%chance
5670
OptionVotes
1095
101
If we ever come across a life form that didn't originate on earth, would it be mainly carbon based?
Nov 22, 9:47 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM
76.26%chance
13484
OptionVotes
1353
854
By the end of 2035, will I be able to use a hoverbike as a regular mode of transportation across New York Harbor?
Jul 13, 3:19 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39.37%chance
8304
OptionVotes
1241
806
Will "Recap of bike trip/street interviews across A..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Jul 17, 6:22 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM
12.05%chance
4164
OptionVotes
1160
976
Will factory farming ever be de facto banned and enforced across the contiguous United States?
Jun 16, 3:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM
39%chance
377
OptionVotes
125
80
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