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Prediction markets for Act 10

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

56.6%chance

9413352

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1142

876

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.13%chance

215978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10497

2690

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

12.77%chance

233562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2275

637

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2027

Sep 14, 11:07 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.8%chance

51978

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2874

348

Will the California legislature override any gubernatorial veto by the end of 2029

Sep 28, 5:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.59%chance

41270

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2017

740

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.17%chance

16992

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1100

977

Will there be a bald US president before February 2049?

Sep 12, 5:02 AMJan 31, 11:59 PM

36.06%chance

8405

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1331

751

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.52%chance

5265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

967

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

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