Act 10 News

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

58.08%chance

9013035

OptionVotes

YES

1177

850

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

486932

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

Worldwide Pandemic

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.01%chance

175392

OptionVotes

YES

9916

2845

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

1875

705

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

YES

1928

630

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Jun 1, 7:55 PM

222244

OptionProbability

YES

1329

1172

Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?

Aug 4, 4:16 PMAug 4, 10:59 PM

4.08%chance

141391

OptionVotes

YES

1377

951

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

1017

958

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Jul 13, 6:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2215

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

Aug 6, 7:32 AMSep 30, 7:26 AM

110

OptionProbability

After 2045

2025-2029

2030-2034

2035-2039

2040-2044

Act 10 News

Prediction markets for Act 10

Prediction markets for Act 10

Prediction markets for Act 10

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Unspecified Stock Market Variable (USMV)

Will human civilisation collapse due to climate change before 2040?

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

When will one of the top 5 U.S. universities (HYPSM) fall out of the top 10?

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