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Prediction markets for Act 10

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

59.06%chance

9213274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1201

833

ICE agent murdered on duty by end of 2026?

Jan 24, 11:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21%chance

8710064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

194

52

What will the next world-wide crisis be?

Nov 18, 2:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

497048

OptionProbability

Nothing Ever Happens (Nothing Happens)

Direct military engagement between either G20 members, or the use of nuclear weapons

An AI kills a human without explicitly being given a task

Other (10m+ deaths)

Worldwide Pandemic

350+ million climate-displaced persons annually

US Treasury payment default or missed obligation

57

34

32

14

12

10

8

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.48%chance

205553

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10072

2801

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will Stripe acquire Openrouter in 2026?

Jul 25, 4:30 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

61.58%chance

513077

OptionVotes

NO

YES

6420

5689

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.59%chance

12744

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

884

Will an eco-terrorism act causing a significant loss of life (10+) occur before 2035?

Jan 31, 6:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

56.93%chance

11403

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1017

958

In 2029, will at least 75% of Nectome clients be ideally preserved?

Apr 15, 3:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.52%chance

5265

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1028

967

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will the UK raise the minimum income requirement for family visas above £40,000 before 2027?

Jul 21, 10:31 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

232

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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