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Prediction markets for Actions

US Military action again Venezuela in 2025?

Nov 15, 10:08 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.29%chance

16438443

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1982

505

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

32.8%chance

5710818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1585

352

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55317

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

10

Will there be significant legal action against embryo selection in the US by 2028?

Apr 5, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.61%chance

232246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1850

540

Will an AI provider be sued due to the actions taken by their AI by the end of 2025?

Dec 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

83.98%chance

222135

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1480

871

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

10.06%chance

42069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

100

Will anyone say the words "excuse me, princess" in the upcoming live-action Legend of Zelda movie?

Nov 8, 5:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.15%chance

401518

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

966

Conditional on no mitigating action, will anyone steal or vandalize our giant chess set in 2025?

Mar 31, 1:05 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.23%chance

151238

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1926

519

Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?

Feb 11, 4:48 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

36.83%chance

4890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

764

Will A Class Action Lawsuit Be Filed Against Manifold or ManiPlay By End Of 2026?

Dec 21, 11:42 AMJan 9, 4:59 AM

31.68%chance

11640

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1469

681

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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