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Prediction markets for Actions

U.S. military or CIA kinetic action against Brazil before end of 2027?

Jun 9, 2:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.9%chance

4039927

OptionVotes

YES

NO

132578

102314

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

36.91%chance

5911079

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1524

406

Which year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?

Apr 29, 12:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

247824

OptionProbability

Other

2027

2026

2024

2025

84

11

4

1

1

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

65359

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

11

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

10.79%chance

52234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2703

107

Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)

Jun 3, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.24%chance

101632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

566

Will anyone say the words "excuse me, princess" in the upcoming live-action Legend of Zelda movie?

Nov 8, 5:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.25%chance

411629

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1058

970

Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?

Feb 11, 4:48 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

31.94%chance

61040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1460

685

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.98%chance

7319

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

960

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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