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Prediction markets for Actions

If Trump self-pardons, will the Supreme Court rule the action unconstitutional?

Sep 19, 12:44 AMDec 26, 4:59 AM

33.39%chance

5710832

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1600

365

Will the class-action lawsuit by artists against several AI art generators be successful?

Jan 17, 4:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.76%chance

725643

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6181

6090

Trump Legal Immigration Action During Second Term (What actions in bills/executive orders will be taken before 2029?)

Nov 14, 5:34 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55317

OptionProbability

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives an H1B visa or green card

A STEM master's graduate automatically receives a green card

15

10

Will the United States take military action against any other NATO member in 2026?

Jan 7, 8:25 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.6%chance

254241

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2460

681

Will there be significant legal action against embryo selection in the US by 2028?

Apr 5, 1:47 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.63%chance

252326

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1798

556

Will The Pokémon Company pursue legal action against DHS/the US govt for the DHS Pokemon video before Dec 2027?

Sep 26, 3:50 PMDec 1, 5:59 AM

10.06%chance

42069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2756

100

Will anyone say the words "excuse me, princess" in the upcoming live-action Legend of Zelda movie?

Nov 8, 5:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

36.8%chance

411528

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

956

Between Feb 1 2025 and Feb 1 2029 inclusive, will at least 10 US civilians be killed on US soil by enemy action?

Feb 11, 4:48 PMFeb 3, 7:59 AM

35.11%chance

5940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

736

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will there be verified U.S. federal government actions intended to influence an Alberta independence referendum?

Jan 30, 1:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.85%chance

4120

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

902

What actions will I take to improve my dog run's chances at success?

Jan 16, 12:45 AMJul 1, 11:42 PM

253

OptionProbability

Try to meet a county board member

Post flyers with QR code for a signup sheet to show community interest

Scout out locations besides Quincy Park

57

50

50

Will "High-level actions don’t screen off intent" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Sep 12, 10:01 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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