Active Users News

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

YES

1447

1232

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9277407

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.7%chance

486306

OptionVotes

YES

2533

705

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

88.99%chance

92393

OptionVotes

YES

2843

352

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

YES

999

822

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Dec 8, 10:33 AMDec 8, 10:30 AM

50%chance

231174

OptionVotes

YES

127

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

1496

812

Will Meta's metaverse have ≥100 million monthly active users on Dec 31, 2033?

Nov 18, 10:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.18%chance

12343

OptionVotes

YES

326

151

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

4.28%chance

9296

OptionVotes

YES

300

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Dec 18, 3:17 AMJun 30, 11:59 PM

8243

OptionProbability

X maintains higher daily active users than Threads through mid-2026

Another platform (not Threads or Bluesky) overtakes X by mid-2026

Threads overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

Bluesky overtakes X in daily active users by mid-2026

X and Threads reach parity in daily active users by mid-2026

Market resolves N/A due to unclear measurement methodology

Other

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

1121

932

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.36%chance

5134

OptionVotes

YES

131

124

Active Users News

Prediction markets for Active Users

Prediction markets for Active Users

Prediction markets for Active Users

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Bluesky active users in December 2026

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Will Meta's metaverse have ≥100 million monthly active users on Dec 31, 2033?

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Will X (Twitter) be overtaken by Threads or another platform in daily active users by mid-2026?

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

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