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Prediction markets for Active Users

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.25%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1437

1240

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8875432

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

51

15

4

3

1

1

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.63%chance

466299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2549

703

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

How many weekly active users will moltbook have by end of March 2026?

Jan 31, 1:17 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

31515

OptionProbability

Above 0

Above 1,000

Above 10,000

Above 100,000

Above 1,000,000

Above 10,000,000

95

93

88

80

50

35

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Dec 8, 10:33 AMDec 8, 10:30 AM

38.95%chance

22952

OptionVotes

YES

NO

134

12

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

52.25%chance

6419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

956

Will Bluesky exceed 50 million monthly active users before December 31, 2026?

Dec 10, 3:58 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

28%chance

7357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

62

In which year will there be a social network with more active users than Facebook?

Jul 28, 5:30 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

21.01%chance

7268

OptionProbability

NO

YES

352

213

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

932

Will AI companion apps surpass dating apps in average daily active U.S. users by the end of 2027?

Dec 21, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.97%chance

8159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

77

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