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Prediction markets for Active Users

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.54%chance

142101373

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1445

1233

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9982208

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

30

9

4

2

1

1

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.34%chance

496394

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2621

696

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

88.99%chance

92393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2843

352

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Dec 8, 10:33 AMDec 8, 10:30 AM

55%chance

261437

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

21

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

19.61%chance

201082

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1546

799

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.47%chance

15398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1321

854

Will any AI investing agent have at least 1 million publicly verifiable monthly active users by the end of 2027?

May 11, 4:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.34%chance

4354

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

Will AI companion apps surpass dating apps in average daily active U.S. users by the end of 2027?

Dec 21, 5:22 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.35%chance

9169

OptionVotes

NO

YES

140

71

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.37%chance

6144

OptionVotes

NO

YES

141

117

Will Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?

May 18, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.96%chance

150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

988

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