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Prediction markets for Active Users

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.23%chance

140101362

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1436

1240

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8672426

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

57

16

4

3

1

1

If Manifold integrates Bluesky, how many active users will we have in 3 months?

May 21, 11:14 PMDec 31, 11:06 PM

2530281

OptionProbability

Above 10,000

Above 20,000

Above 50,000

Above 100,000

64

18

11

7

ChatGPT reaches 1 billion monthly active users in 2025?

Aug 6, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.98%chance

6112362

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1831

546

Will Threads report more monthly active users than Twitter before 2026?

Jul 24, 7:14 AMDec 31, 9:59 PM

5.47%chance

2910833

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2878

763

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.63%chance

466299

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2549

703

Will Nostr reach 100,000 monthly active users in 2025?

Jan 27, 5:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.77%chance

103692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3710

270

Will AoE IV have more active users on Steam than AoE II on 12/31/25?

Oct 15, 1:14 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

7.09%chance

153290

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3667

392

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Will any social media platform surpass Facebook in terms of global active users by the end of 2025?

Jan 23, 3:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

16.66%chance

191439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2213

429

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.51%chance

15507

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1322

861

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

932

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