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Prediction markets for Active Users

What's the average IQ of active manifold users? (PERMANENT)

Apr 27, 8:33 PMDec 27, 10:59 PM

56.58%chance

141101372

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1447

1232

Bluesky active users in December 2026

May 23, 8:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9075533

OptionProbability

Above 1 million

Above 2 million

Above 5 million

Above 10 million

Above 50 million

Above 100 million

52

15

4

3

1

1

Will Bluesky social have more monthly active users than Twitter by March 1st, 2028?

Mar 1, 1:34 AMMar 1, 3:00 AM

8.72%chance

476301

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2528

705

Will Mastodon have more Monthly Active Users than Twitter in 2030?

Nov 25, 9:28 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18%chance

331723

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

822

Twitter (X) Crosses 1 billion Monthly Active Users by 2030

Mar 26, 6:25 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.39%chance

201032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1496

812

Will I still be an active Manifold user in 8 years (08.12.2033) ?

Dec 8, 10:33 AMDec 8, 10:30 AM

48.99%chance

23993

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

17

Will Manifold poker nights attendance exceed Manifold daily active users?

Apr 13, 2:06 AMApr 20, 3:59 AM

31.36%chance

9480

OptionVotes

YES

NO

267

157

Vibes will have more active users than Sora at the end of 2026

Jan 2, 7:50 AMJan 16, 7:59 AM

52.25%chance

6419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1046

956

Will an active Manifold user be indicted for selling military secrets to another country before the end of 2030?

Apr 2, 6:09 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.51%chance

14198

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1121

932

Will Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?

Aug 2, 11:42 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

11.25%chance

7186

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

19

Will manifold daily active users (DAU) pass the population of Monaco before 2029?

Apr 18, 12:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.05%chance

9185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

211

137

Will Twitter have at least 400 million monthly active users in 2030?

Mar 20, 6:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.36%chance

5134

OptionVotes

NO

YES

131

124

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