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Prediction markets for Actor

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

14.85%chance

81474

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2394

418

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

28.63%chance

251287

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1686

440

Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?

May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

17.99%chance

91266

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2135

468

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Which actor will play the Seventeenth Doctor Who?

Jun 1, 4:44 AMDec 31, 5:43 AM

51006

OptionProbability

Other

David Tennant (Again)

Matt Smith (Again)

Peter Capaldi (Again)

Lydia West

Olly Alexander

Michael Sheen

Omari Douglas

Lenny Henry

Michaela Coel

T'Nia Miller

Hugh Grant

Ben Daniels

Bernard Cribbins

Bill Nighy

Christopher Eccleston (Again)

Josh O'Connor

Jack Lowden

Lashana Lynch

Danny Dyer

Idris Elba

Toby Jones

Diane Morgan

Joanna Lumley

Richard Hearne

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Billie Piper

51

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027?

Apr 5, 7:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

68.41%chance

35826

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.93%chance

19801

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1484

1255

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Which actor will be the next to detonate a nuclear weapon offensively?

Oct 18, 3:33 AMDec 19, 3:55 AM

662

OptionProbability

Russia

North Korea

United States

Iran

Pakistan

China

Israel

India

Non-state actor

Other

40

10

7

7

7

6

6

6

6

6

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