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Prediction markets for Actor

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Oscars 2027: Will an actor or actress receive 2+ nominations in the same category?

May 18, 5:28 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

17.65%chance

61176

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2160

463

Will the Forward Party become a meaningful actor in the US political scene?

Aug 2, 4:40 PMNov 7, 10:59 PM

3.55%chance

191066

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1229

957

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

49.25%chance

24755

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1190

752

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at Oscars 2027?

Apr 5, 7:20 PMJan 20, 11:59 PM

52.41%chance

29660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

105

95

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20%chance

17577

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

1290

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Will Tom Cruise win another Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor Oscar by 2030?

Feb 24, 5:21 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

20.21%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

47

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

48.12%chance

4157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1091

1011

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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