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Prediction markets for Actor

Best Supporting Actor winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 1:40 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

1517100

OptionProbability

Stellan Skarsgård - Sentimental Value

Sean Penn - One Battle After Another

Benicio Del Toro - One Battle After Another

Jacob Elordi - Frankenstein

Delroy Lindo - Sinners

66

19

8

4

3

Best Lead Actor winner? (2026 Oscars)

Jan 22, 2:07 PMMar 14, 11:59 PM

2916952

OptionProbability

Timothee Chalamet - Marty Supreme

Leonardo DiCaprio - One Battle After Another

Michael B. Jordan - Sinners

Wagner Moura - The Secret Agent

Ethan Hawke - Blue Moon

73

12

8

4

4

Is a state actor behind the XZ backdoor?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

36.99%chance

421728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

579

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.97%chance

24705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

803

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

30.48%chance

8590

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1510

662

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Which controversial actor will return to films first?

Apr 2, 2:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10167

OptionProbability

Jonathan Majors

Louis CK

Ezra Miller

Charlie Sheen

41

36

22

2

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

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