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Prediction markets for Actor

Is a state actor behind the XZ backdoor?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

36.99%chance

421728

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1420

579

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

77.15%chance

361235

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

957

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

27%chance

8724

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1644

608

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

51.97%chance

24705

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

803

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Will any actors from Doctor Who be cryopreserved before October 2034?

Dec 11, 4:14 AMOct 2, 6:59 AM

9.7%chance

6303

OptionVotes

YES

NO

265

52

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Will Ralph Fiennes win the Academy Award Oscar for for Best Actor by the end of 2029?

May 3, 4:07 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

10.91%chance

4189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

286

35

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1059

1041

Will actor Timothy Busfield be acquitted of all charges related to the child actors on the Cleaning Lady?

Jan 21, 5:44 AMApr 30, 5:42 AM

49.55%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

101

99

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