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Prediction markets for Actor

Will some U.S. actors be negatively affected financially due to AI by end of 2025?

Jan 4, 5:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.96%chance

444974

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1673

557

A Netflix live-action show will be hosted or have a main character that is AI Generated, with no actor involved, before the end of 2025

Dec 27, 3:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.01%chance

191550

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2092

834

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

4.98%chance

161505

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2046

896

Is a state actor behind the XZ backdoor?

Apr 3, 4:14 PMApr 10, 9:59 PM

53.22%chance

411366

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1083

856

By 2028, given some text, AI can output a recording that can’t be distinguished from a voice actor, by expert listeners?

Jan 5, 10:56 AMJan 12, 8:29 AM

80.71%chance

361185

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1266

907

Best Actress Oscar is removed, renamed, or combined with Best Actor by mid 2034

Jun 30, 8:12 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

32.22%chance

6530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1450

689

Will a state actor or other group succeed at stealing GPT-4 model weights by the end of 2026?

Jul 21, 9:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.47%chance

16527

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1303

1298

Will there be a new youngest winner for the Academy Awards Oscar for Best Actor by April 1st 2029? (29 years old)

Dec 13, 5:48 AMApr 2, 3:59 AM

63.83%chance

23505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1080

940

A Screen Actor's Guild supported TV Show or Movie will list an AI in its writing credits before the end of 2025

Dec 27, 4:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.56%chance

18349

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

932

Rick and Morty: will Justin Roiland ever be an official voice actor again?

Apr 8, 9:44 PMApr 14, 9:59 PM

30.79%chance

13274

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1007

951

Will Tom Cruise win another Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor Oscar by 2030?

Feb 24, 5:21 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

20.21%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

189

47

Will an unaligned AI or an aligned AI controlled by a malicious actor create a "wake-up call" for humanity on AI safety?

Apr 7, 6:09 PMApr 7, 10:59 PM

68.84%chance

10141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

974

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