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Prediction markets for Actua

Who is actually stronger Shanks or Mihawk?

Feb 22, 1:01 PMApr 20, 9:59 PM

30164770

OptionProbability

Shanks

Mihawk

51

49

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10048142

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

1107

Are the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)

Dec 28, 2:59 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

5.66%chance

2629444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2024

867

When will Twitter actually "collapse"?

Jul 1, 9:17 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

18427986

OptionProbability

Not before 2027

Q1 2024

2025

2026

Q3 2023

Q4 2023

Q2 2024

Q3 2024

Q4 2024

90

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

1

Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon?

Feb 5, 4:02 AMJan 1, 6:00 AM

79.18%chance

10411450

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2547

1566

Will there be a "DOGE Dividend," even if it is actually just mislabelled stimulus, by the 2026 midterms?

Feb 19, 6:04 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

4.51%chance

519229

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4603

217

Will all 500 billion dollars from Project Stargate actually get invested within four years?

Jan 22, 3:37 AMJan 29, 4:59 AM

22.28%chance

569159

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7326

4245

Regardless of elections, will actual control of the White House switch parties in January 2029?

Jul 20, 8:28 PMFeb 2, 5:59 AM

53.96%chance

151698

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10382

9514

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.67%chance

171570

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6171

4649

By 2026, will a proeminent chatbot with some access to the internet do something actually harmful and unintended?

Feb 17, 6:30 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

67.82%chance

17695

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1026

899

Did Robert O'Neill actually kill Osama Bin Laden?

Jun 11, 9:07 PMJan 1, 10:06 PM

52.2%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

957

Will "WTH is Cerebrolysin, actually?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Aug 10, 7:21 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

17.84%chance

244

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

781

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