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Prediction markets for Actually Open AI

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

36.35%chance

177427

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1952

602

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

May 23, 1:04 PMMay 25, 3:59 AM

86.02%chance

386539

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2481

403

What will happen to Hugging Face?

Feb 22, 8:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

775143

OptionProbability

Acquisition (for >$4.5bn)

IPO

None of the above before 2029

Bankruptcy, collapse or acquisition for <$4.5bn

49

27

13

10

Is "jerky" a reference to human meat in Epstein files?

Feb 15, 6:14 AMDec 31, 6:12 AM

10%chance

204872

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3000

333

Will a misaligned AGI take over the world?

Jan 26, 7:41 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.66%chance

384310

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2031

730

Will OpenAI receive a bailout from the US government by the end of 2028?

Nov 3, 4:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.73%chance

131873

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1615

619

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

78%chance

16943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1382

859

Will there be a good AI personal assistant released in 2026?

Feb 23, 5:16 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.53%chance

20676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

167

60

Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 5 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?

Apr 8, 6:37 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

91.85%chance

16610

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1169

959

Will OpenAI publicly state that they know how to safely align a superintelligence before 2030?

Nov 3, 11:59 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21.38%chance

12254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

889

Will the GOP face a serious third party competition by midterms 2030?

Mar 13, 10:46 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

46.84%chance

6163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

939

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