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Prediction markets for Adaptive

Will the Netflix One Piece live action adaptation be cancelled before a third season?

Sep 4, 8:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

4.93%chance

4721688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3869

619

Who will play Kaladin in Apple’s film adaptation of The Stormlight Archives?

Jan 29, 6:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33291

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Mescal

Dallas Liu

Henry Cavill

Timothée Chalamet

Simu Liu

Rami Malek

Riz Ahmed

Tom Holland

Chris Pratt

Dev Patel

76

6

5

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

Will there be a live action planecrash adaptation before 2029? (Including in development)

Jun 3, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.24%chance

101632

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1768

566

Will JK Rowling allow a tv adaptation of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality by end of 2030?

May 10, 2:48 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

6.42%chance

281212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1552

919

Will Denis Villeneuve direct an adaptation of The Player of Games before 2035?

Apr 15, 7:20 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

8.11%chance

7612

OptionVotes

YES

NO

473

44

Will there be an animated Tress of the Emerald Sea adaptation by 2029?

Jan 4, 12:34 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

7.94%chance

6281

OptionVotes

YES

NO

293

20

Will the album “Warriors” be adapted as a musical that premieres by 2030?

Nov 30, 10:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57%chance

7267

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1151

869

Outer Dark (McCarthy) film adaptation before 2028?

May 21, 5:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.22%chance

4116

OptionVotes

NO

YES

514

326

Will there be a Zelda: Breath of the Wild adaptation for Virtual Reality by end of 2030?

Jan 7, 7:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.85%chance

13109

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

970

Will Hunter x Hunter get a new anime adaptation before the end of 2030?

Dec 21, 5:45 PMDec 31, 12:00 AM

54.75%chance

1100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1100

909

Will there be a complete, professional looking comic book adaptation of HPMOR, before 2029?

Jun 4, 2:27 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.18%chance

370

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

912

Will a major streaming service adapt A Fire Upon the Deep by Vernor Vinge into a television series by 01/01/2032?

Nov 28, 3:18 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

356

OptionProbability

No.

Yes: Netflix

Yes: Amazon Prime Video

Yes: Apple TV+

Yes: Disney+

Yes: HBO Max

Yes: Hulu

Yes: Paramount+

Yes: Peacock

Other

77

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

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