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Prediction markets for Admin

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM

7.22%chance

8356330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35858

2789

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Dec 9, 2:11 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1%chance

6841165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?

Mar 27, 4:01 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

76.69%chance

3112495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10399

8552

Will a high-level Trump admin member mention Zizians before 2027?

Feb 2, 10:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.01%chance

341759

OptionVotes

YES

NO

318

31

air traffic control integrated with grok by end of Trump admin?

Feb 5, 7:27 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

12731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

Will the Trump admin allow the Colorado River to reach an inoperable level to declare a State of Emergency b4 midterms?

Aug 29, 8:36 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

24.9%chance

6424

OptionVotes

YES

NO

174

58

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

65

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Jul 11, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.71%chance

13202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

Jun 2, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4192

OptionProbability

10-15

16-20

21-29

Other

30-49

31

22

16

16

14

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

Jul 4, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

47.63%chance

448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

95

Will a 500k+ Chinese KOL get a publicly disclosed admin fine for posting professional content without credentials?

Dec 17, 7:26 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

80%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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