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Prediction markets for Admin

Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?

Feb 27, 4:46 AMJan 20, 2:59 AM

7.22%chance

8356330

OptionVotes

YES

NO

35858

2789

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Dec 9, 2:11 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1%chance

6841165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

9950

101

Will RFK Jr. have an official role in the Trump Administration at the start of 2027?

Mar 27, 4:01 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

77.45%chance

3112795

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10310

8852

Will anyone be punished for failure to fully release the Epstein files?

Dec 20, 8:34 AMNov 7, 10:00 PM

312764

OptionProbability

No, not before 2026 midterms

No, not during Trump's second term

No, not before 2032 general election

Sort of, charged under the next admin but then found not guilty/charges thrown out

Yes, fined under the administration after Trump

Sort of, charged under Trump admin but then found not guilty/case thrown out

Yes, fired under Trump admin

Yes, fined under Trump admin

Yes, imprisoned under the administration after Trump

Yes, imprisoned under Trump admin

100

81

62

44

37

27

26

20

20

18

Will a high-level Trump admin member mention Zizians before 2027?

Feb 2, 10:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

10.18%chance

341818

OptionVotes

YES

NO

297

34

air traffic control integrated with grok by end of Trump admin?

Feb 5, 7:27 PMJan 23, 4:59 AM

3.41%chance

12731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

532

19

UK Parliament redefines 'person' to include AI for admin by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4.51%chance

6409

OptionVotes

YES

NO

414

65

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

Jul 4, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

92.06%chance

5298

OptionVotes

NO

YES

341

29

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Jul 11, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.71%chance

13202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

How many times will the Trump admin and/or NVIDIA flip-flop on giving NVIDIA chips to China before 2028? (fun)

Jun 2, 11:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4192

OptionProbability

10-15

16-20

21-29

Other

30-49

31

22

16

16

14

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will a 500k+ Chinese KOL get a publicly disclosed admin fine for posting professional content without credentials?

Dec 17, 7:26 AMDec 31, 7:25 AM

80%chance

122

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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