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Prediction markets for Admin

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Dec 9, 2:11 PMJan 21, 5:59 AM

1.49%chance

6736742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8124

123

How many Trump Admin Cabinet members will be resigned or fired by the start of 2026?

Jan 19, 7:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

213200

OptionProbability

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

29

27

20

13

10

10

10

Will the Trump admin deport a usa citizen over Tesla arson or related crimes by end of 2025?

Mar 20, 9:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.17%chance

372596

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

462

Will Gavin newsom be held arrested or taken into custody by Trump admin in 2025?

Jun 8, 5:32 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.17%chance

241501

OptionVotes

YES

NO

360

28

Will a high-level Trump admin member mention Zizians before 2027?

Feb 2, 10:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.99%chance

301189

OptionVotes

YES

NO

214

47

Will the Trump admin take action against The Atlantic over signal story

Mar 26, 10:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.93%chance

28828

OptionVotes

YES

NO

518

80

Will Sriram Krishnan be appointed and remain senior policy advisor in the Trump admin through 2025?

Dec 26, 7:45 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61.99%chance

11657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1277

783

Peter Navarro out of the Trump admin before EOY 2025?

Apr 20, 2:46 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

46.31%chance

20352

OptionVotes

YES

NO

108

93

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Trump admin member or their immediate family member indicted for insider trading before 2027?

Jul 11, 6:50 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.3%chance

11132

OptionVotes

YES

NO

138

72

Will the Z-Library admins be extradited to the United States by the end of 2025?

Jul 9, 6:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.2%chance

5130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

227

44

Will Bears Ears National Monument shrink again during Trump2 admin?

Jul 4, 7:07 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

43.37%chance

439

OptionVotes

YES

NO

114

88

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