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Prediction markets for Administrative Law

Will the US exhibit strong signs of autocracy if Trump wins in 2024?

Aug 28, 4:50 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

43%chance

8712384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1151

869

If Trump is elected, will Biden go to prison for treason related to his border policies?

Oct 23, 5:07 PMJan 21, 7:59 AM

2.42%chance

469617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6356

157

Will the Trump administration deport a US citizen to El Salvador this year?

Mar 17, 2:00 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.63%chance

647475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1209

827

Will birthright citizenship end in the United States by the end of Trump's term?

Nov 7, 11:10 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

25%chance

396772

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1732

577

Supreme Court upholds unconstitutionality of broad tariffs?

May 29, 12:35 AMJan 1, 1:23 AM

68.88%chance

384517

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1488

672

US city, county or state is renamed, min pop 250k, by mid 2028

Jul 26, 7:15 PMAug 1, 6:59 AM

47.66%chance

52539

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10480

9542

Will Avraham Eisenberg be freed from incarceration before the development of AGI?

Jan 7, 5:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.89%chance

151304

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1541

705

What will the US national debt be after the Trump administration?

Mar 5, 8:50 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

10918

If Trump wins, will active-duty military be used to control protests/riots in DC?

Mar 11, 3:38 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.75%chance

22858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1120

906

Will any of the proposals in Elizabeth Warren’s letter to DOGE be implemented by 2030?

Feb 1, 11:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

5331

OptionProbability

Miscellaneous Savings Initiatives

Cutting Wasteful Spending at the Department of Defense (DoD)

Cutting Waste, Fraud, and Abuse in Federal Healthcare Programs

Improving Efficiency Across Federal Agencies

Targeting Tax Loopholes and Inefficiencies

55

53

51

50

28

Will any federal "non-core property" be sold to a Trump family member?

Mar 7, 5:06 PMJan 24, 4:59 AM

18.73%chance

4200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

208

48

Before 2030, will there be an AI-caused administrative disempowerment?

Aug 8, 5:52 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.42%chance

565

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4007

3989

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