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Prediction markets for Ads

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMDec 4, 7:40 PM

10356200

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

"The Lootbox Lies" - Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

100

74

72

64

64

43

31

21

11

7

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

32.75%chance

13713512

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1433

698

Is your phone listening to everything you say and using this to target ads?

Dec 12, 6:29 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

6.2%chance

8810382

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2959

1241

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.5%chance

405357

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2191

1837

Will there be ads with your face on them before 2028?

Oct 30, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.14%chance

313345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1221

819

Will Wikipedia show third-party ads before 2030?

Sep 26, 2:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.54%chance

93021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3781

265

Claude maintains ad-less free plan until 2028?

Feb 4, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

76.82%chance

11669

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

860

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.23%chance

21611

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1182

899

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?

Feb 9, 12:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

22.17%chance

2150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1026

901

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

33

33

33

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