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Prediction markets for Ads

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMJul 4, 8:40 PM

9348558

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Cranes In Form - by Pat Scott

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

100

100

83

65

64

51

46

36

33

13

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

9.36%chance

4843292

OptionVotes

YES

NO

31117

3214

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

13613104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

711

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.6%chance

324161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2292

1774

Will there be ads with your face on them before 2028?

Oct 30, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.43%chance

293063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1350

741

Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

69.02%chance

3538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

938

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

62.91%chance

3500

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1302

768

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

What will the final AD cash-deposit rate (Russia-wide entity) be for unwrought palladium?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

55.95%chance

1127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

887

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMJul 1, 5:48 PM

76.72%chance

273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

977

Will the developers of the game Farlight 84 adding back jetpacks in next update?

Mar 29, 9:08 PMDec 30, 10:04 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

They wouldn't add jetpacks in the next update, but in the one after that yes

33

33

33

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