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Prediction markets for Ads

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMFeb 20, 7:40 PM

8433674

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

97

77

76

73

66

62

44

43

38

15

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

53.33%chance

156620

OptionVotes

NO

YES

10689

9355

Will there be ads with your face on them before 2028?

Oct 30, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.11%chance

293019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

752

Will Wikipedia show third-party ads before 2030?

Sep 26, 2:50 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

6.55%chance

83019

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3779

265

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.85%chance

202222

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3118

1396

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.91%chance

151307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

766

Anthropic releases any new Claude before their Super Bowl ad runs?

Feb 4, 11:17 PMFeb 8, 6:29 PM

48.02%chance

7528

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

961

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1082

941

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

3400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Claude maintains ad-less free plan until 2028?

Feb 4, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

79.33%chance

4202

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

967

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

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