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Prediction markets for Ads

MANA MERCH SHOP: Which designs will be added to the mana merch store?

Oct 22, 8:28 PMJul 4, 8:40 PM

9040023

OptionProbability

The Manifold Logo

Crane Hexes - by Pat Scott

“Anti gambling gambling club” - by andri

Trustworthy-ish - by Pat Scott

“Put your Mana where your mouth is” - by MIMIR MAGNVS

“This meeting could have been a market” - by andri

“Calibrated measures” - by andri

“my waifu / predicts the future" - Pat Scott

“ I just lost mana because of that” - by andri

“It’s not 🤮crypto🤮 it’s play money” - by andri

95

91

90

83

66

62

44

41

38

16

OpenAI abandon answer independence on ads before 2028?

Feb 11, 6:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.58%chance

13613104

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1406

711

Will Sora have ads two years after launch?

Oct 1, 5:16 PMSep 30, 5:12 PM

58.04%chance

2211675

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11762

8502

Will Anthropic deploy ads on Claude before 2030?

Feb 4, 3:35 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.6%chance

324161

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2292

1774

Will there be ads with your face on them before 2028?

Oct 30, 11:51 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.36%chance

293031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1352

740

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.07%chance

161466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

752

Will an AD duty order on unwrought palladium from Russia be issued by Oct 31, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

69.02%chance

3538

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1126

938

Miami-Dade WASD ceases adding fluoride to its drinking water by 2027

Mar 11, 9:00 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

59.11%chance

3400

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1202

832

Will ChatGPT recommend products of ad partners over similar products from companies that don't buy ads?

Jan 16, 11:00 PMJan 16, 10:34 PM

56.9%chance

6341

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1149

870

Will Russia be added to the Financial Action Task Force blacklist before 2050?

Oct 16, 11:20 AMDec 31, 7:59 PM

50.88%chance

6195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1018

983

What will the final AD cash-deposit rate (Russia-wide entity) be for unwrought palladium?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMOct 31, 5:48 PM

55.95%chance

1127

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1127

887

Will Commerce issue a final affirmative AD determination (A-821-840) by Jun 30, 2026?

Feb 16, 5:48 PMJul 1, 5:48 PM

76.72%chance

273

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1073

977

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