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Prediction markets for Advanced

Are any UFOs actually highly-advanced technology?

Nov 18, 5:19 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22%chance

10248166

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1560

1107

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

45.74%chance

13644436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

12658

10372

What % of Americans will identify computers/technology advancement as the US's most important problem before 2026?

Dec 5, 2:57 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2030407

OptionProbability

0.21-0.5%

0-0.2%

0.51-1%

1.01-2%

5.01-10%

>10%

2.01-5%

63

25

6

2

2

2

1

Will we find something showing equal or greater architectural advancement to Gobekli Tepe, from before 11,000 BC?

Mar 4, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 PM

33.07%chance

5810769

OptionVotes

NO

YES

11052

10904

If any UFOs are highly advanced technology, are they of non-human origin?

Sep 22, 5:37 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.02%chance

318436

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1072

965

Will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Mar 30, 2:13 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

12.36%chance

676653

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4229

1096

When we first meet (intelligent, advanced) aliens, will they value increasing happiness and reducing suffering of all sentient life forms?

Sep 20, 2:31 AMFeb 1, 4:59 AM

40%chance

423994

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1057

822

GPT-5 plus scaffolding and inference-compute ~= training compute will achieve capabilities advance >= (GPT-4 to GPT-5).

Dec 21, 6:39 PMDec 29, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

232378

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1657

1487

Apple's Advanced Data Protection feature remains available in the United States through December 31, 2028

Feb 14, 5:07 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

63.71%chance

3325

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1330

760

Will over 1,000,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

28%chance

10201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1039

977

Will the most advanced LLM stop being from a US-based company any time before 2030?

Oct 19, 7:30 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.25%chance

12163

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

946

Will a team that goes 2-2 in group advance to the single elimination round of the NBA In-Season Tournament by 2028?

Dec 2, 2:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

Yes

No

50

50

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