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Prediction markets for Advanced Emerging

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will there be a major paradigm shift in physics, like Newtonian to Modern Physics, by the end of 2040?

Jan 14, 12:56 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

27.61%chance

7316505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

929

Will we get Rouge AI before 2032?

Mar 12, 11:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.23%chance

264684

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

623

10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:39 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.58%chance

233790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1073

935

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Mar 10, 2:41 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.94%chance

263666

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1896

811

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will neurotechnology enable AI to predict and classify human decisions, along with their influencing factors, by 2030?

May 18, 8:53 PMJan 3, 12:59 PM

59.29%chance

303064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

815

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

Will some AIs have a right to own property in the United States before 2050?

Aug 6, 12:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

31.11%chance

251508

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1002

978

Will the transformer architecture be replaced in SOTA LLMs by 2028?

Dec 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

57.29%chance

20702

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

867

Will the market of foundation models be more fragmented than in 2024 by EOY 2026?

Jul 16, 3:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.7%chance

4555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1553

644

Will there be an unscheduled change in the US presidential election date through 2036?

May 20, 8:47 PMJun 7, 6:59 AM

18.18%chance

17219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1111

956

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