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Prediction markets for Advanced Machine Intelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23%chance

7879883

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1007

964

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

21.05%chance

6120998

OptionVotes

NO

YES

979

968

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.26%chance

6218979

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

904

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

12%chance

6217422

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1543

876

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31%chance

6515001

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1040

848

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

43.95%chance

576457

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1136

775

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

47.87%chance

505100

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1129

774

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

Dec 15, 5:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24.37%chance

14657

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1055

728

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.57%chance

14393

OptionVotes

NO

YES

992

984

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