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Prediction markets for Advanced Machine Intelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

23.15%chance

112127771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1000

965

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

11.64%chance

7954185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1692

846

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will we get ASI before 2028?

Dec 31, 12:48 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

8.32%chance

7025591

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2144

811

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

40.47%chance

7722660

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1094

802

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

29.55%chance

8322186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1021

891

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

50.94%chance

688490

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1253

646

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

53.73%chance

677801

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1236

670

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

12.32%chance

483391

OptionVotes

NO

YES

982

869

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

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