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Prediction markets for Advanced Machine Intelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.59%chance

8892518

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3024

684

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

22.32%chance

6420078

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1426

822

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

14.22%chance

7118300

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1758

796

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.45%chance

617404

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

850

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

28.78%chance

556603

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

822

Will we get ASI before 2035?

Jun 21, 10:28 PMMar 5, 10:59 PM

33%chance

383925

OptionVotes

YES

NO

142

70

Will superintelligent AI take over humanity by 2030?

Dec 15, 5:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

6.44%chance

192908

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2575

797

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

76.41%chance

15395

OptionVotes

NO

YES

986

986

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