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Prediction markets for Advanced Machine Intelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

6.08%chance

105109530

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3227

670

Will we get ASI before 2027?

Feb 3, 2:34 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

1.47%chance

7847977

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8054

650

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

23.8%chance

8838615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1020

841

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.42%chance

7521770

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1188

900

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

17%chance

8021031

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

843

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

30%chance

648021

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

920

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

36.58%chance

647343

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1030

943

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

17.06%chance

483141

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1025

619

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

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