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Prediction markets for Advanced Machine Intelligence

Will we get ASI before 2030?

Dec 20, 12:57 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

15%chance

9797184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1503

850

Will we get ASI before 2029?

Dec 21, 3:51 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

9.97%chance

7344634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1941

815

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2035?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

21%chance

8538513

OptionVotes

NO

YES

987

956

Will we get ASI before 2032?

Dec 24, 12:13 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

24.64%chance

7020736

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1308

858

Will we get ASI before 2031?

Dec 22, 2:29 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

18.23%chance

7319004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1415

862

Will we get ASI before 2033?

Dec 30, 1:14 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.28%chance

637634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

878

Will we get ASI before 2034?

Jan 18, 9:01 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

27.85%chance

607043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1317

808

Will we have near-complete automation of the world economy before 2030?

Aug 7, 6:58 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

9.1%chance

442875

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1175

946

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an autonomous robot beat an Olympic champion at table tennis before 2028?

Apr 22, 7:20 PMDec 31, 8:08 PM

21.57%chance

121502

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1907

524

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?

Feb 26, 6:31 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

75.94%chance

16401

OptionVotes

YES

NO

992

966

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