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Prediction markets for Advanced Trade

Will US GDP growth in Q4 2025 come in at or above 5%?

Jan 8, 7:53 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

18.66%chance

122799

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2089

479

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

111714

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2028

2029

39

35

29

28

17

Will university fusion continue in Paris until only 1 huge one remain? (Before Nov. 2027)

Nov 6, 9:48 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

6.62%chance

8895

OptionVotes

YES

NO

382

78

Will it replicate? Genetic and Functional Drivers of Diffuse Large B Cell Lymphoma (Cell, 2017, by March 2026)

Nov 27, 11:26 AMMar 1, 11:00 AM

7826

OptionProbability

No replication attempt published

Controversial resolution

Replication

Retraction/Notice of concern

Failure to replicate

94

9

7

7

6

First country to advertise for immigration of specifically trans tech worker, before Oct 2027

Sep 30, 8:28 PMOct 1, 9:59 PM

12366

OptionProbability

Other

None

New Zealand

Canada

Spain

Iceland

36

16

15

13

12

7

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

If we had an AI in the 2020s that could exactly duplicate a strawberry, would that destroy the world? (In 2050-hindsight)

Feb 22, 4:00 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

53.76%chance

8160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

166

Significant attack on post-quantum KEM Kyber published before Nov 2026

Nov 19, 9:38 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

19.12%chance

5155

OptionVotes

YES

NO

183

45

At the end of 2030 which company will be worth more Coinbase (COIN) or Robinhood (Hood)?

Jun 11, 9:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6130

OptionProbability

Robinhood (HOOD)

Coinbase (COIN)

56

44

Significant attack on post-quantum signature FALCON published before Nov 2026

Nov 21, 8:05 PMNov 1, 10:59 PM

35.7%chance

220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

90

55

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