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Prediction markets for Advanced Trade

Clarity Act will pass in September

Jun 4, 1:00 AMSep 30, 11:59 PM

1.42%chance

2814452

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8339

120

Do you think Bayern would win the second leg against Real Madrid

Apr 7, 11:20 PMDec 30, 11:19 PM

99%chance

92593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

10

When will an AI-related event dominate the mainstream news cycle for at least three consecutive days?

Jan 21, 6:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

172482

OptionProbability

2027

2030 and after. . . or we're all dead before the news comes out.

2026

2028

2029

40

17

16

16

10

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 500 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

79.28%chance

21760

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

78

Will the GTA VI leaker be publicly identified before GTA VI releases?

Aug 22, 6:26 AMNov 19, 11:59 PM

36.91%chance

221361

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1307

765

Will the US concede Taiwan to the PRC before 2030?

Mar 1, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.21%chance

14835

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1015

943

Proof of Personhood SDK stock

Apr 8, 8:05 PMApr 9, 6:29 PM

21351

OptionProbability

NO

YES

416

404

If I die, will I be successfully cryopreserved?

Jul 24, 9:53 PMDec 31, 10:46 PM

60.34%chance

7337

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1233

811

Years of Lead 2: European Boogaloo ? Before 2030 (M500 subsidy)

Sep 30, 8:07 PMApr 1, 9:59 PM

50.67%chance

7290

OptionVotes

NO

YES

676

622

Will the S&P 500 offer a REAL CAGR greater than 8% from 2024 until 2050?

Dec 25, 10:46 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

48.47%chance

13216

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1016

970

Will CBMM Araxá high-purity Nb2O5 nameplate capacity exceed 5000 tpa on December 31, 2026?

Mar 30, 9:46 PMDec 31, 5:00 AM

61.22%chance

319

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

4

Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?

May 4, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.8%chance

15

OptionVotes

YES

NO

105

98

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