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Prediction markets for Advancing AI

Will an AI model be developed before 2030 that can accurately predict local weather patterns up to 6 months in advance?

Mar 19, 8:55 AMDec 31, 7:00 PM

4.32%chance

5312069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2124

894

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

25.45%chance

281988

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1205

883

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037

Dec 22, 7:04 PMJun 30, 6:59 AM

46.38%chance

161699

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

930

Solution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2028

Dec 22, 6:14 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

18.89%chance

161663

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2072

483

If Trump is elected in 2024, will the US impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

Jan 31, 3:47 PMDec 31, 5:59 AM

14.39%chance

161498

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1743

807

Will there be a significant advancement in frontier AI model architecture by end of year 2026?

Aug 14, 10:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.31%chance

12974

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

567

Will the 3 laws of robotics be used as a framework for an AGI or advanced AI by 2030?

Jan 6, 9:05 PMJan 7, 7:59 AM

14.9%chance

21869

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

889

How much will AI advances impact EA research effectiveness, by 2030?

Aug 25, 9:10 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

12340

OptionProbability

Dramatic Gain (+100% to +1000%)

Medium Gain (+20% to +100%)

Enormous Gain (>+1000%)

Roughly Neutral (-20% to +20%)

Medium Loss (-100% to -20%)

Dramatic Loss (<-100%)

38

27

20

13

2

1

Will California impose restrictions on training new advanced AIs before 2030?

May 12, 11:35 AMDec 31, 5:59 AM

17.68%chance

12288

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1116

946

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:54 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

78.3%chance

15188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

950

Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?

Jan 14, 12:51 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

53%chance

8143

OptionVotes

NO

YES

157

144

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