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Top stories

Swift–Kelce Engagement Boosts Signet Shares and Lands Kelce American Eagle Deal

Prediction Markets

Swift–Kelce Engagement Boosts Signet Shares and Lands Kelce American Eagle Deal

Authors

57

16 hours ago

Prediction markets for AE

Aella stock (permanent)

Jan 6, 6:55 PMAug 11, 9:43 PM

879565215

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3219

2781

Will I (Aella) convert to Christianity by the end of 2028?

Dec 30, 8:07 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

2%chance

184412279

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3154

952

Will @aella revert to Christianity within 5 years?

Dec 30, 6:37 PMDec 31, 7:59 AM

1.83%chance

5211172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2075

932

Will I (Aella) find someone to seriously date by the end of 2029?

May 24, 6:27 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

79.55%chance

1258832

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1911

1602

Is Aella worth more than 1 million dollars?

Oct 26, 7:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.41%chance

528613

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2419

413

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2070?

Sep 20, 7:25 PMJan 27, 7:59 AM

78.95%chance

194434

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1781

178

Will AES-256 encryption be broken by 2033?

May 14, 2:09 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

15%chance

313529

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1005

788

[Metaculus] Will an aerial drone terrorist attack result in an injury or death in the United States before 2026?

Apr 26, 5:18 PMJan 2, 11:00 AM

17.02%chance

121494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3913

2356

Will AI or AI-assisted math break AES-256 before quantum computing does?

Dec 3, 2:54 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

16.3%chance

191105

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1780

763

Who will be the next leader of North Korea?

Dec 27, 3:31 PMOct 4, 3:59 AM

13790

OptionProbability

Kim Ju Ae

Other

Kim Pyong-il

Kim Yo-jong

51

29

12

8

Will I be impressed by someone using RL through self-play to improve model creativity or aesthetics in 2025?

Jan 27, 12:36 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.5%chance

6731

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10255

9775

Will Kim Ju-ae become the next leader of North Korea after Kim Jong-un?

Feb 16, 6:25 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

57.63%chance

11247

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

180

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