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Prediction markets for Aero

Will Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost M2 mission successfully land on the moon?

Sep 11, 10:33 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

67.39%chance

151857

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

85

How long until Majid Mousavi is no longer Aerospace Chief of the IRGC?

Jun 15, 10:13 PMJan 3, 10:57 PM

71661

OptionProbability

Before 2028

Before 2027

Before August 2025

Before September 2025

Before 2026

72

71

0

0

0

When will Alef Aeronautics Flying Car go into production?

Mar 5, 9:02 AMJan 2, 6:59 AM

51039

OptionProbability

Never

Other

2025

2026

2027

73

24

1

1

1

Will an aeroplane take off from Heathrow's Third Runway before these dates?

Jan 30, 3:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6976

OptionProbability

1st January 2045

1st January 2045

1st January 2040

1st January 2035

1st January 2030

82

78

52

40

7

Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026?

Oct 23, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

82.22%chance

13661

OptionVotes

NO

YES

215

47

If we try stratospheric aerosol injection before 2030, will it go well?

Sep 30, 6:51 PMApr 4, 6:59 AM

68.15%chance

14493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1054

965

Will Heart Aerospace ES-30 make its first revenue flight (at least 100 km) before 2030?

Nov 15, 9:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10.28%chance

3215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

260

25

Will Dawn Aerospace go public by the end of 2026?

Oct 12, 9:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

44.8%chance

311

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

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