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Prediction markets for Afghans

US regain control over Bagram air base in Afghanistan by August 2026?

Sep 19, 6:49 AMAug 30, 11:59 PM

12.41%chance

101813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2657

376

In 2030, will the government of Syria be better described as being closer to that of the UAE or Afghanistan?

Dec 12, 2:42 PMJan 1, 3:59 PM

36.46%chance

7753

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1320

758

Will there be a major uprising against Taliban government in Afghanistan by 2030?

Aug 17, 3:18 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

57.42%chance

23749

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1125

788

Will the Taliban lose control of Afghanistan before the Jojo's Bizarre Adventure manga ends?

Dec 8, 9:37 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.51%chance

18710

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1490

762

Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before 2030?

Dec 26, 4:33 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.59%chance

17556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1081

817

Which media will I enjoy reading/watching?

Apr 23, 6:41 PMAug 23, 6:21 PM

13516

OptionProbability

The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy

Breaking Bad

Afghan Napoleon: The Life of Ahmad Shah Massoud

Project Lawful

Catch 22

Gordon Ramsay On Cocaine

Sunspot by Yootie

70

64

63

59

51

50

50

Will Russia conduct military operations in Afghanistan against ISIS-K before the end of 2026?

Mar 23, 6:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.21%chance

20497

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1343

880

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 10th State Senate district

Jun 4, 4:03 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4458

OptionProbability

Other

Scott Sakakihara

Carmen Montano

Aisha Wahab (Democratic, Incumbent)

54

26

15

5

Will the Taliban still be in power in Afghanistan five years from now? (March 2024-2029)

Mar 19, 8:33 PMApr 1, 3:59 AM

76.62%chance

16398

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1045

963

Will the Taliban represent Afghanistan at the United Nations before the end of 2026?

Jan 1, 5:35 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

43%chance

9157

OptionVotes

YES

NO

115

87

Will the Taliban control Afghanistan in 2035?

Mar 26, 4:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.2%chance

6121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

183

92

Bagram Airbase in Afghanistan under US control on November 7. 2028?

Sep 21, 1:52 AMNov 6, 11:59 PM

23.58%chance

7100

OptionVotes

YES

NO

180

56

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