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Prediction markets for Agenda

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179417

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3911

1625

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

232123687

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1880

1704

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

236687

OptionProbability

Other

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Eliezer Yudkowsky

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

32

22

9

5

5

5

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Revolutionary Agenda Stock

May 3, 4:24 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

604553

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1102

617

Celestial Dragon Agenda Stock

May 3, 4:25 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

173268

OptionProbability

NO

YES

974

203

Hawkins Agenda

Nov 7, 11:48 PM

152690

OptionProbability

YES

NO

334

204

Will President Trump extend the DOGE Executive Order Agenda past the July 4th, 2026 deadline?

Mar 10, 8:25 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

34.12%chance

685

OptionVotes

YES

NO

139

72

Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Will "UK AISI’s Alignment Team: Research Agenda" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 11:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Autism - alignment agendas correlation

Jul 23, 3:58 PM

50

How pro-trans agenda are you?

Jan 9, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1300

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