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Prediction markets for Agenda

Gorosei Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

179179448

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3880

1628

Admiral Agenda Stock

May 2, 2:35 PMMay 2, 9:59 PM

236124892

OptionProbability

NO

YES

3789

1501

If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?

Jul 24, 7:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

246962

OptionProbability

Other

Paul Christiano

Ben Goertzel

Daniel Hillis

Doug Lenat

Krantz Hanzinpantz

Eliezer Yudkowsky

John Wentworth

davidad

Vanessa Kosoy

Janus

Evan Hubinger

Buck Shlegeris

Jan Leike

Ilya Sutskever

Alex Turner

Yann LeCun

40

11

6

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

Revolutionary Agenda Stock

May 3, 4:24 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

624692

OptionProbability

NO

YES

828

636

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

Celestial Dragon Agenda Stock

May 3, 4:25 PMMay 3, 9:59 PM

183318

OptionProbability

NO

YES

1024

200

Hawkins Agenda

Nov 7, 11:48 PM

152690

OptionProbability

YES

NO

334

204

Will "UK AISI’s Alignment Team: Research Agenda" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 20, 11:58 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

7.83%chance

1750

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1750

913

Will President Trump extend the DOGE Executive Order Agenda past the July 4th, 2026 deadline?

Mar 10, 8:25 PMJul 5, 3:59 AM

8.19%chance

10307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

335

30

Will "Obstacles in ARC's agenda: Finding explanations" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

May 18, 6:40 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

How pro-trans agenda are you?

Jan 9, 2:24 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

1490

Autism - alignment agendas correlation

Jul 23, 3:58 PM

50

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