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Prediction markets for Agent Experience

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

25%chance

323855

OptionVotes

YES

NO

173

58

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33088

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

January 2026

February 2026

16

15

15

10

7

7

7

7

7

7

1

1

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

70.19%chance

141281

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1206

848

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will China's Darwin neuromorphic chip create an LLM in 2026?

Nov 29, 9:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.86%chance

265

OptionVotes

YES

NO

165

61

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats the Phillip AI in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

45.25%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

91

Before 2028, will I be able to train a Super Smash Bros. Melee ML agent that beats me in a Bo5 set?

Feb 24, 1:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.75%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

91

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