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Prediction markets for Agent Force

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.65%chance

7927659

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1959

1808

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

16.43%chance

233162

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1875

705

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

16%chance

113133

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2293

437

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Will fatal ICE shooting in the US occur again before March 2026?

Jan 26, 2:31 AMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

38.05%chance

412701

OptionVotes

YES

NO

873

289

Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM

25%chance

142067

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

42.96%chance

291950

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1239

762

Will ICE, including CBP, be involved in violent activities at the 2026 Super Bowl?

Jan 29, 6:04 PMFeb 9, 12:00 AM

38.08%chance

291569

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.82%chance

6945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

111

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

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