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Prediction markets for Agent Force

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.66%chance

9839371

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2108

1576

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

Iran directly attacks U.S. in 2026?

Feb 28, 7:32 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

404734

OptionProbability

Military Installation or Static Deployment

Diplomatic Mission

Mobile Military Asset (Naval or Air)

Homeland / Sovereign Territory

No Direct Attack in 2026

100

98

53

10

0

Will Congress pass a bill by the end of Q1 2025 that mandates customer service operations to be located inside the USA?

Nov 23, 3:14 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

7.99%chance

204547

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3396

295

Confrontation between ICE and Minnesota police

Jan 25, 2:23 AMApr 1, 1:16 AM

9.48%chance

214418

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2382

749

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will the United States Air Force integrate an autonomous, AI-controlled fighter jet, like Lockheed's VISTA X-62, into their active service fleet by 2040?

Feb 24, 1:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

73.59%chance

212870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1221

865

Are autoregressive LLMs a doomed paradigm? (Inspired by LeCun's tweet)

Apr 9, 6:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40%chance

292050

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1309

712

Sig Sauer bankrupt by EOY 2035?

Oct 16, 8:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.82%chance

6945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1253

111

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will major institutions call human labor “uncompetitive” vs AI in some domain by end of 2040?

Dec 4, 3:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.14%chance

4750

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1650

606

Will an AI be able to impersonate players in Super Smash Bros. Melee before 2030?

Mar 27, 3:40 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

65.99%chance

10177

OptionVotes

NO

YES

257

192

Will Federal Agents draw guns on voters on Election Day 2026

Mar 21, 10:56 PMNov 4, 11:59 PM

17%chance

6171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

221

45

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