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Prediction markets for Agent Framework

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

128715

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Apr 22, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124397

OptionProbability

By the end of 2029

By the end of 2028

By the end of 2027

2030 or later

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

68

63

57

32

9

1

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7290

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

65

19

9

2

2

2

1

Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations

Feb 3, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

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