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Prediction markets for Agent Framework

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

118675

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

68

59

45

0

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Apr 22, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124397

OptionProbability

By the end of 2029

By the end of 2028

By the end of 2027

2030 or later

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

68

63

57

32

9

1

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

21.64%chance

221033

OptionVotes

YES

NO

190

53

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4248

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

76

14

3

2

2

2

1

Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations

Feb 3, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.09%chance

160

OptionVotes

YES

NO

160

63

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