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Prediction markets for Agent Framework

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.47%chance

12337043

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14077

6665

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.96%chance

1811242

OptionVotes

YES

NO

18853

5304

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

Apr 22, 5:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

124397

OptionProbability

By the end of 2029

By the end of 2028

By the end of 2027

2030 or later

By the end of 2026

By the end of 2025

68

63

57

32

9

1

Will the US have state-sanctioned death squads by Jan 20th 2029?

Apr 27, 1:34 PMJan 19, 11:59 PM

23.94%chance

221036

OptionVotes

YES

NO

178

56

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7394

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

43

27

20

3

2

2

2

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

6226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

858

Will a G7 data authority fine a major AI agent provider over $100M for autonomous agent privacy violations

Feb 3, 12:10 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.71%chance

170

OptionVotes

YES

NO

170

59

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Apr 14, 6:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.7%chance

221

OptionVotes

NO

YES

101

98

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