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Prediction markets for Agent Keys

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Feb 3, 9:42 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.16%chance

26682672

OptionVotes

NO

YES

8636

4842

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.2%chance

17132633

OptionVotes

NO

YES

14073

7523

Will Trump declare a national emergency before the midterms?

Aug 19, 3:17 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

27.33%chance

14610416

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1631

613

Will AI Research Be Mostly Autonomous By June 1 2027?

Mar 19, 2:05 AMMay 31, 11:59 PM

25.93%chance

495232

OptionVotes

YES

NO

169

59

Toronto Blue Jays make 2026 postseason?

Nov 3, 9:10 PMSep 26, 10:59 PM

2.26%chance

171069

OptionVotes

YES

NO

657

15

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

47.05%chance

10314

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

94

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

44.86%chance

8131

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111

90

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Aug 1, 4:23 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.76%chance

173

OptionVotes

NO

YES

119

91

Will there be troops or federal agents at US voting booths in 2026 or 2028?

Aug 1, 4:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.28%chance

110

OptionVotes

YES

NO

110

87

Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?

Apr 14, 6:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

57.44%chance

110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

110

92

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