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Prediction markets for Agent Leaderboard

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

269278

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

97

96

93

92

0

0

0

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Jul 13, 6:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

3965

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

62

25

2

2

2

2

2

1

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Jul 1, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.73%chance

9906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

296

34

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12484

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

66

17

11

2

1

1

1

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Mar 28, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

7453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

1

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

5379

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

96

95

95

54

24

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

7289

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

858

Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?

Sep 11, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.25%chance

9269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

42

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

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