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Prediction markets for Agent Leaderboard

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1768096

OptionProbability

Above 50%

Above 60%

Above 70%

Above 80%

Above 90%

100

100

29

9

5

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

May 15, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2133934

OptionProbability

20 - 39%

40 - 59%

60 - 79%

80 - 100%

0 - 19%

75

14

6

3

2

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1112701

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2028

2029

2025

2024

21

21

18

14

14

12

1

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

387022

OptionProbability

2026

2025

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

33

20

13

7

6

5

4

4

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

226881

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

96

92

84

12

0

0

Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

354212

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

xAI

Meta

DeepSeek

Other

Alibaba

83

10

3

2

1

1

1

0

Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80% by December 31, 2025?

Dec 12, 10:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.98%chance

122673

OptionVotes

YES

NO

365

27

Top average (agent and edit) LiveSWEBench score by EOY2025?

Apr 1, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51542

OptionProbability

Above 80

Above 60

Above 70

Above 50

Above 90

37

27

24

20

11

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Jul 13, 6:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2215

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

6

Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025?

Mar 11, 2:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

47.66%chance

9169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

106

99

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3164

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

49

35

5

4

3

3

2

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.36%chance

335

OptionVotes

YES

NO

103

97

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