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Prediction markets for Agent Leaderboard

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518776

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

19

16

16

4

1

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

269246

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

97

96

92

92

0

0

0

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7394

OptionProbability

2027

2028

2026

2025

2029

2030 or later

Other

43

27

20

3

2

2

2

Will OpenRouter's top 3 most used models all cost less than $1.00 per million tokens on Dec 31, 2026?

Jun 1, 2:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.42%chance

6226

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1165

858

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Jul 13, 6:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2215

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

13

13

13

13

13

13

13

6

Will a multi-agent AI system publicly outperform a solo frontier model on a live benchmark before July 2026?

Mar 30, 3:28 PMJul 1, 12:00 AM

89.46%chance

4197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

278

53

Open "Nano Banana Pro"‑Level Model on a Gaming GPU by 2028?

Nov 23, 4:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

68.3%chance

485

OptionVotes

NO

YES

147

68

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Mar 28, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

72.39%chance

260

OptionVotes

NO

YES

160

15

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