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Prediction markets for Agent Leaderboard

Top Multi-SWE-bench score in 2025?

May 15, 1:40 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1929205

Top OSWorld score in 2025?

Feb 28, 6:23 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

1020457

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1011851

OptionProbability

2026

2030 or later

2027

2025

2028

2029

2024

20

20

17

15

13

13

1

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

376881

OptionProbability

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

34

33

13

7

6

5

4

4

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

226246

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

97

95

92

87

63

0

0

Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

272003

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

44

29

12

9

3

1

1

1

Top average (agent and edit) LiveSWEBench score by EOY2025?

Apr 1, 8:06 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3802

Will an LLM agent complete >50% of the lab tasks on the Factorio Learning Environment benchmark in 2025?

Mar 11, 2:09 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

48.59%chance

8167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

104

101

Will the GPT4+code-interpreter+search score > 1350 on Lmsys Arena Leaderboard?

Jan 27, 7:04 PMFeb 4, 4:59 AM

48.64%chance

220

OptionVotes

NO

YES

70

70

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GSO benchmark?

Jul 13, 6:02 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

115

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