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Top stories

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Google Tests Agent and Immersive Modes to Broaden Gemini AI

Authors

18

1 year ago

Prediction markets for Agent Mode

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

26.41%chance

131634

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1675

600

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Jul 1, 12:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.73%chance

9906

OptionVotes

NO

YES

296

34

How many labs will have a model that is higher than Fable 5 on the arena.ai agent arena at the end of 2026?

Sep 13, 11:19 AMDec 30, 11:00 PM

5379

OptionProbability

Above 1

Above 2

Above 3

Above 4

Above 5

96

95

95

54

24

Will all infectious diseases of all types be effectively eliminated from human civilization before 2040?

Mar 17, 2:04 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.94%chance

10351

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1281

950

At the end of 2026 will there be any European model that ranks higher than Mistral Medium 3.5 on arena.ai agent arena?

Sep 1, 7:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

87.12%chance

7205

OptionVotes

NO

YES

260

38

Will any European model listed on arena.ai agent arena have a higher score than Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview by end 2026?

Sep 12, 12:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

50.04%chance

7203

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?

May 13, 4:12 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

12%chance

298

OptionVotes

YES

NO

176

85

Who will have the top model on arena.ai Agent Arena accessible through a ≤$20/mo subscription on December 1st 2027?

Oct 29, 9:17 AMNov 30, 11:59 PM

11

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Anthropic

Google

Moonshot

Meta

Other

39

39

8

5

5

5

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