Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved
Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer
Exists before start of 2030
conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI
Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do
A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved
Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved
Exists before start of 2028
Sends $100,000 to a useless human middleman (who doesn't help the model in any way other than initial investment and deployment) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved
