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Prediction markets for Agent Tesla

2030 – 1. Nvidia’s market capitalization will be meaningfully lower + Intel’s will be meaningfully higher, than today

Mar 11, 12:04 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.88%chance

233212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1925

695

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

523

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.71%chance

111813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

382

Is the agent task horizon really increasing that fast on messy tasks?

Dec 4, 12:27 PMDec 5, 12:19 PM

30.6%chance

9644

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1506

664

When will Tesla in-car Grok be able to control grok bots for you while you drive?

Sep 2, 8:39 AMJan 2, 7:38 AM

5530

OptionProbability

Before Jan 2028

Before Oct 2027

Before Jul 2027

Before Apr 2027

Before Jan 2027

64

54

48

30

20

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