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Prediction markets for Agentic AI

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

4177849

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

58

24

9

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.1%chance

525802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

735

Major company suffers serious damage from AI agent in 2026?

Apr 19, 2:14 AMJan 7, 11:59 PM

24.33%chance

485449

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1764

567

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.97%chance

184299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

655

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

17.54%chance

192291

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2211

472

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

19.55%chance

92127

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2029

493

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

78.94%chance

71727

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1936

517

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

Will "Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 5:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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