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Prediction markets for Agentic Applications

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.78%chance

175742

OptionVotes

YES

NO

15357

6512

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83569

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2025

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

97

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

4239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will OpenAI's primary consumer AI product still be branded 'ChatGPT' on December 31, 2033?

Jun 15, 2:19 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.28%chance

564

OptionVotes

YES

NO

124

80

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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