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Prediction markets for Agentic Applications

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

82.06%chance

372697

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1928

630

Will there be a new AI Startup primarily focused on using AI models for computer control before the end of March?

Mar 4, 2:01 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

39.68%chance

141178

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1137

741

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8766

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

32

26

9

8

7

7

7

4

Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?

Mar 22, 3:26 AMApr 30, 11:59 PM

47.33%chance

14628

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

948

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

70.61%chance

255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

155

65

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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