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Prediction markets for Agentic Applications

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597859

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

@Quroe

@Celene

Pat Scott @Stralor

50

25

20

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

0

0

0

Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?

Jun 16, 6:56 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.7%chance

3134762

OptionVotes

YES

NO

25099

3984

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

Jul 7, 7:13 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93651

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2025

94

2

1

1

1

1

1

0

2030 – 3. Over one hundred thousand humanoid robots will be deployed in the real world.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

79.08%chance

382747

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1720

680

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

When will we be able to reversibly preserve isolated primate brains at least 50 yrs with function and memories intact?

Jan 9, 8:36 PMJun 2, 6:59 AM

4300

OptionProbability

2061 or beyond or never

2055-2060

2035-2040

2040-2045

2045-2050

2050-2055

2030-2035

2024-2030

34

12

10

10

10

10

9

5

Will Google Antigravity be discontinued by EOY 2027?

Aug 4, 8:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.61%chance

10243

OptionVotes

YES

NO

242

41

Will the terminal UI be the default interface for Claude code on 1 Jan 2027?

Feb 7, 7:42 AMJan 1, 12:00 AM

38%chance

4239

OptionVotes

YES

NO

128

78

Will Blizzard create an Apple Silicon-native version of the Battle.net desktop app by the end of 2027?

Aug 24, 3:53 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

89.95%chance

5229

OptionVotes

NO

YES

299

33

Will Google Antigravity be discontinued by EOY 2026?

Aug 4, 8:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

8.9%chance

4220

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

31

Will Google Antigravity be discontinued by EOY 2027?

Aug 12, 4:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.48%chance

12219

OptionVotes

YES

NO

200

69

Help Al Quinn find good movies (because nearly everything is terrible) 12K Mana Bounty!

Mar 9, 8:51 PM

00

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