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Prediction markets for Agentic Personalization

Should we hire you? [Job-finding market]

Aug 3, 4:44 PMDec 30, 4:14 PM

6597852

OptionProbability

Dummy answer required due to Manifold's multiple-choice market design, will resolve N/A

@retr0id

@Quroe

@vi

@Bandors

@zhengkyl

@Eternal

@Cy

@8my41

@astroblob

@AlirezaAfshan

@AtharvPatil

Pat Scott @Stralor

@Celene

50

25

22

20

18

15

15

14

13

11

10

10

1

0

Will at least one other person be found guilty in a court of law for involvement in Crooks' Trump assassination attempt?

Jul 18, 2:23 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

2.7%chance

1739662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

44399

7886

Will the first AI model that saturates Humanity's Last Exam be employable as a software engineer?

Mar 17, 11:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

74.22%chance

7818700

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1697

589

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Jul 24, 2:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73.65%chance

135870

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5679

2185

Will there be a billion-dollar company with only one person by 2040?

Jul 3, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

38%chance

432617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1277

783

Will Moltbook be TIME person of the year 2026?

Jan 31, 5:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1.22%chance

192163

OptionVotes

YES

NO

900

11

Will I get punished for blindly running AI-generated code in 2026?

Jan 1, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.19%chance

161981

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1596

626

2030 – 2. We interact with a wide range of AIs in our daily lives as naturally as we interact with other humans today

Mar 11, 12:07 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

88.83%chance

141045

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1519

876

Scientists or influencers outside China have been paid by the CCP to advocate for a natural origin of Covid 19.

Oct 1, 11:05 PMOct 9, 3:59 AM

62.31%chance

13532

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1286

778

Will any country forbid the ownership of AI Agents recognized as legal persons by 2030?

Aug 15, 3:44 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

11.7%chance

19526

OptionVotes

YES

NO

230

86

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1319

797

Who will create the first widely adopted AI powered personal agent, that learns from user input?

Dec 28, 10:04 PM

00

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