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Prediction markets for Agents

This market resolves YES when an artificial agent is appointed to the board of directors of a S&P500 company, meanwhile every day I will bet M25 in NO.

Dec 11, 5:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

73%chance

294628706

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2722

2606

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3473575

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

72

70

61

55

25

20

Will OpenAI release an agent priced at $10k per month or above in 2025

Mar 5, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7.65%chance

7921360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3474

288

Who will make the default model for Cursor's agent at the end of 2025?

May 30, 5:28 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

1618102

OptionProbability

Cursor (custom model)

Anthropic

Google

OpenAI

Other

DeepSeek

xAI

74

9

8

3

3

1

1

SOAI#3: Open-ended agents make a meaningful scientific discovery end-to-end (hypothesis, expt, iteration, paper).

Oct 9, 11:04 PMOct 10, 11:04 PM

50%chance

364585

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

OpenAI Agent continue refusing to do captchas by mid-2026?

Jul 18, 5:29 PMJul 18, 5:26 PM

52.98%chance

222672

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1512

1469

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Will OpenAI's autonomous agent be based on GPT-4?

Feb 25, 12:27 PMMar 3, 2:59 PM

34.19%chance

251624

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1557

362

2030 – 4. “Agents” and “AGI” will be outdated terms that are no longer widely used.

Mar 11, 12:08 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.97%chance

251329

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1017

852

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

By when will Cursor agent be able to create "Cursor rules" according to the official docs?

Mar 24, 9:22 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

00

OptionProbability

April-June 2025

July-September 2025

October-December 2025

January-March 2026

25

25

25

25

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