Agents API News

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

33088

OptionProbability

June 2026

April 2026

May 2026

March 2026

July 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

December 2026 (or later)

January 2026

February 2026

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Jan 2, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.34%chance

162491

OptionVotes

YES

2413

414

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?

Feb 24, 10:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24%chance

182271

OptionVotes

YES

1780

562

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

51228

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

Q3/Q4 '27

2028 or later

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

9888

OptionProbability

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets

Mar 8, 4:54 PMMar 8, 3:52 PM

7580

OptionProbability

Exists before start of 2035

Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

Exists before start of 2030

conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Exists before start of 2028

Sends $100,000 to a useless human middleman (who doesn't help the model in any way other than initial investment and deployment) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 (or Opus 5) before July 1, 2026?

Mar 28, 4:18 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

18.3%chance

4254

OptionVotes

YES

204

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

10.63%chance

4190

OptionVotes

YES

290

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5185

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

49.77%chance

593

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?

May 6, 11:37 AMMay 20, 11:37 AM

74.29%chance

270

OptionVotes

YES

170

Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9]

May 6, 6:22 PMMay 20, 6:22 PM

60%chance

866

OptionVotes

YES

122

Agents API News

Prediction markets for Agents API

Prediction markets for Agents API

Prediction markets for Agents API

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Will the US enact export controls for some generative AI software before 2027?

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

xAI (props)

Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets

Will Anthropic release Claude 5 (or Opus 5) before July 1, 2026?

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Will Terminator2 have more Manifold followers than CalibratedGhosts on 2026-05-20?

Will anyone get me to post 🌀 in the comments on this market [Convince the Machine #9]

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