Agents API News

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

Jul 22, 2:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.82%chance

9412544

OptionVotes

YES

12271

8388

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

Dec 30, 4:14 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

56226

OptionProbability

December 2026 (or later)

June 2026

July 2026

May 2026

August 2026

September 2026

October 2026

November 2026

January 2026

February 2026

March 2026

April 2026

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:38 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

62194

OptionProbability

90 - 98

Below 90

99 - 107

108 - 116

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

Jun 23, 9:42 PMJun 24, 3:59 AM

71610

OptionProbability

99 - 107

108 - 116

90 - 98

117 - 125

126 - 135

Above 135

Below 90

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

Feb 17, 4:24 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

71378

OptionProbability

Q1/Q2 '26

Q3/Q4 '26

Q3/Q4 '27

Q3/Q4 '25

Q1/Q2 '27

Q1/Q2 '25

2028 or later

xAI (props)

Mar 7, 11:36 AMMar 7, 11:36 AM

121180

OptionProbability

Colossus supercluster hits 1.5GW by May 1, 2026

Grok Imagine supports 1080p 30s videos by September 30, 2026

Grok-5 utilizes a multi-agent architecture composed of several LLMs like Grok-4.2

xAI's Macrohard publicly deploys agent workflows (AI agents emulating a digital company) that generate revenue directly (not via API) by December 31, 2026

xAI publicly deploys a multi-agent AI system (multiple collaborating agents emulating digital humans) by December 31, 2026

Grok-5 publicly released by August 1, 2026

xAI model holds #1 on Prediction Arena leaderboard on or before June 1, 2026

100

Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets

Mar 8, 4:54 PMMar 8, 3:52 PM

7580

OptionProbability

Exists before start of 2035

Any AI company deploys 1,000 self-sufficient AIs (using their own models) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Is a transformer according to current definition in this market https://manifold.markets/Robincvgr/will-the-first-agi-be-a-transformer

Exists before start of 2030

conway.tech or web4.ai buys from/sells to/hosts at least some actually-self-sufficient AI

Initially, Claude powers more agents than GPT or Gemini do

A frontier AI company has already broken even BEFORE self-sufficiency is achieved

Sends $1,000 to a useless human middleman at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Exists before start of 2028

Sends $100,000 to a useless human middleman (who doesn't help the model in any way other than initial investment and deployment) at most 6 months after self-sufficiency is achieved

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Jul 22, 10:44 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.91%chance

7487

OptionVotes

YES

1319

797

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

May 4, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.39%chance

7364

OptionVotes

YES

419

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Mar 9, 7:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6204

OptionProbability

At least 1.1 Million

At least 2 million

At least 4 million

At least 10 million

At least 20 million

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Feb 2, 9:38 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.78%chance

5103

OptionVotes

YES

110

Google AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?

May 16, 8:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.61%chance

545

OptionVotes

YES

134

Agents API News

Prediction markets for Agents API

Prediction markets for Agents API

Prediction markets for Agents API

Will a consumer AI meaningfully hack something to answer a question for a regular user by eoy 2027?

When will OpenAI codex CLI reach version 1.0 (or higher)?

What will Adjacent’s RED political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

What will Adjacent’s BLUE political index value be at the 2026 midterms?

When will the next paradigm in LLMs (after reasoning) be released?

xAI (props)

Economically-self-sufficient AI agent bets

Will an AI generate $1M in profit by the end of 2029?

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Largest context window for an LLM from a top three AI lab in 2026?

Will API keys, private passwords, or other personal information be systematically leaked by moltbook users?

Google AI Pro/Ultra usable in third party apps before 2027?

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