Aggr News

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

Mar 1, 12:24 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

41.34%chance

14661

OptionVotes

YES

1035

913

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

YES

1191

840

Will USA troops set foot in panama with aggressive intention by the end of 2026?

Feb 2, 3:01 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

28.53%chance

20581

OptionVotes

YES

158

What will Trump's 'aggressive housing reform' contain? (ADD YOURS)

Dec 18, 4:06 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

4485

OptionProbability

Restricting federal housing assistance based on immigration status

Streamlined NEPA reviews for housing development

Requiring citizenship verification for housing programs

Eliminating fair housing enforcement programs

New tax incentives for homebuilders

Expanded first-time homebuyer tax credits

Ending Fannie Mae and/or Freddie Mac conservatorship

Higher interest rates or fees for non-citizen borrowers

Privatizing Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac

Tariff exemptions for housing construction materials

Prohibiting non-citizens from purchasing residential property

Federal preemption of local zoning laws

Mortgage rate subsidies or buydowns

Capped mortgage rate

Who will the next "consensus" polling aggregator be?

Mar 5, 4:17 PMNov 2, 4:59 AM

15276

OptionProbability

Other

Silver Bulletin (or similar Nate Silver-ran company)

THERE IS NO CONSENSUS AGGREGATOR

RealClear Politics

Polymarket

Kalshi

Manifold

538

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

Sep 2, 7:35 AMJan 10, 5:59 AM

36.86%chance

13259

OptionVotes

YES

1050

964

By 2037, will China and Taiwan sign a non-aggression agreement?

Aug 14, 4:24 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

16.95%chance

5171

OptionVotes

YES

233

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Apr 1, 6:55 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

66.54%chance

4168

OptionProbability

YES

318

305

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

May 14, 12:51 AMMay 21, 4:59 AM

68.84%chance

271

OptionVotes

YES

149

Private-information aggregation futarchy Nash Equilibria

Aug 16, 8:53 PMDec 31, 5:17 PM

52.44%chance

227

OptionVotes

YES

105

Do you think every market should also have a Metaculus-style aggregated forecast built in?

Mar 16, 4:17 PM

280

User Referred Profits Correlates to How Smart/Stupid a Given Influencer's Audience is In Aggregate

Feb 14, 4:36 PM

Aggr News

Prediction markets for Aggr

Prediction markets for Aggr

Prediction markets for Aggr

Will glioblastoma (an aggressive brain cancer) have a 5-year relative survival rate greater than 15% in the US in 2035?

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Will USA troops set foot in panama with aggressive intention by the end of 2026?

What will Trump's 'aggressive housing reform' contain? (ADD YOURS)

Who will the next "consensus" polling aggregator be?

Will Trump ever give a more aggressive speech than this?

By 2037, will China and Taiwan sign a non-aggression agreement?

What will the aggregate improvement of GPT5 be over GPT4 in terms of metrics?

Does Cannabidiol (CBD) aggravate Cannabinoid Hyperemesis Syndrome (CHS) symptoms?

Private-information aggregation futarchy Nash Equilibria

Do you think every market should also have a Metaculus-style aggregated forecast built in?

User Referred Profits Correlates to How Smart/Stupid a Given Influencer's Audience is In Aggregate

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