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Prediction markets for AGI

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10701123427

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2049-2050

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2028-2029

2040-2041

2041-2042

2042-2043

2026-2027

2027-2028

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

8

8

7

6

6

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

0

0

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.7%chance

304226846

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3805

789

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.82%chance

99161555

OptionVotes

YES

NO

111105

17339

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

13.07%chance

296153064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1910

854

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

33.2%chance

297114829

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1241

1199

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

25%chance

253103473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1788

550

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

26.14%chance

24393000

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1108

944

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

67%chance

8456997

OptionVotes

NO

YES

143166

70518

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

51.62%chance

11836884

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14050

6693

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

2412123

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Major capability limit in AI

Alignment extra hard

56

49

49

48

44

40

38

36

28

25

21

20

1

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10210820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3425

1696

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

49.65%chance

461868

OptionVotes

YES

NO

309

111

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