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Prediction markets for AGI

AGI When? [High Quality Turing Test]

Mar 27, 12:37 AMMar 22, 6:59 AM

10681116020

OptionProbability

2029-2030

2030-2031

2031-2032

2032-2033

2033-2034

2034-2035

2035-2036

2036-2037

2037-2038

2038-2039

2039-2040

2049-2050

2040-2041

2041-2042

2028-2029

2042-2043

2043-2044

2044-2045

2045-2046

2046-2047

2026-2027

2027-2028

2047-2048

2048-2049

2024-2025

2025-2026

10

10

9

9

8

7

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

0

0

Will we get AGI before 2027?

Dec 9, 4:12 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

4.3%chance

299224934

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4103

774

Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?

Apr 18, 9:11 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.49%chance

92161256

OptionVotes

YES

NO

112159

17112

Will we get AGI before 2028?

Dec 8, 7:32 PMMar 3, 10:59 PM

10.19%chance

288149040

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2357

795

Will we get AGI before 2030?

Dec 7, 10:20 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

31.75%chance

292113407

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1297

1172

Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?

Jan 24, 12:51 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

24%chance

24299057

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1835

535

Will we get AGI before 2029?

Dec 8, 12:38 PMMar 1, 10:59 PM

25.14%chance

23290317

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1150

930

Will AGI come from a company whose primary product involves selling a model over an API?

Aug 13, 11:21 AMAug 20, 7:59 PM

65.7%chance

7051445

OptionVotes

NO

YES

139076

72591

Are LLMs capable of reaching AGI?

Oct 19, 6:00 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

50.2%chance

11636496

OptionVotes

YES

NO

14299

6435

Will OpenAI be in the lead in the AGI race end of 2026?

Nov 18, 12:31 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.59%chance

10210820

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3425

1696

If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?

May 24, 8:48 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

239972

OptionProbability

Brakes hit

Capability limit in AI

Huge alignment effort

New AI paradigm

Slow and gradual capability gains in AI

Enhancing human minds and/or society

Major capability limit in AI

Non-AI tech

Alignment relatively easy

Brakes not hit

Alignment unnecessary

Well-behaved AI with bad ends

Alignment extra hard

56

50

49

49

48

44

42

38

36

28

25

21

1

When Manifold's AGI countdown resolves YES, will Manifold users think that AGI really has been achieved?

Apr 22, 2:23 PMDec 31, 10:59 AM

46.44%chance

461858

OptionVotes

YES

NO

320

101

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