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Top stories

Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Averting Duty Spike

Executive Orders

Trump Extends U.S.–China Tariff Truce 90 Days, Averting Duty Spike

Authors

141

2 days ago

Prediction markets for Agreement

Binding agreement of acquisition or merger between Apple and AI company before Q3 2026

Aug 2, 4:38 AMJul 1, 11:59 PM

3728507

OptionProbability

Perplexity

Mistral

Cohere

Hugging Face

Thinking Machines Lab

Anthropic

31

19

17

13

8

7

Will the United States Remain Actively Committed to the Paris Agreement by the End of 2025?

Dec 27, 9:29 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

2.39%chance

216169

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6884

207

Will the Supreme Court strike down the FTC’s attempt to ban noncompete agreements before the end of 2026?

Jul 30, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

29.57%chance

312302

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1428

738

Will SpaceX manage to deliver the Starship on time in 2025 according to its agreement with NASA?

Nov 22, 4:20 PMDec 31, 2:59 AM

14.59%chance

202295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

894

Will the Colombian government and National Liberation Army (ELN) rebels announce a comprehensive agreement before the end of President Gustavo Petro’s term?

Jan 15, 4:17 PMAug 8, 2:59 AM

21.52%chance

151599

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1960

387

When will the Ukraine war enter a state of "frozen conflict” or the ceasefire agreement is signed?

May 5, 8:51 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

91036

By the beginning of 2040, will there be widespread agreement that social media "cancellation" was a harmful social phenomenon?

Dec 11, 2:31 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

67.29%chance

28793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1072

942

Will ISAs (income share agreements) overtake "traditional" student loans by 2030?

Aug 24, 4:34 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.62%chance

13473

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

944

Will any question in the next Philpapers survey get at least 90% agreement?

Mar 20, 1:35 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

16.22%chance

11398

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1105

962

Will the current Israel conflict end with an agreement organized/led by Middle Eastern states?

Oct 10, 1:22 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

60%chance

13353

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1044

907

Will the EU-Mercosur free trade agreement be ratified by the end of 2025?

Dec 7, 2:26 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

48.05%chance

6338

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1040

962

Tesla has agreement with BYD to share access to the supercharger network by mid 2026

Jan 24, 11:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

78.51%chance

7283

OptionVotes

NO

YES

212

53

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