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Prediction markets for AI 100

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Jan 6, 10:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

14.94%chance

398272514

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10331

3557

Will Extropic AI be worth at least $100 million before 2028?

Dec 6, 7:02 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.79%chance

3512719

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1046

911

Will an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Sep 13, 8:18 AMJan 1, 1:00 AM

8.43%chance

425983

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3311

305

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100,000 people before 2029?

Jun 22, 4:40 AMJan 1, 10:43 PM

22.28%chance

304041

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1118

939

Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?

Apr 1, 7:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.4%chance

273083

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1630

758

Will there be a botched AI takeover/attempted shutdown evasion killing >100 people before 2050?

Apr 5, 12:11 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.29%chance

543046

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

796

Will an AI have >100 million Twitter followers this decade?

Nov 26, 4:06 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

13.94%chance

192374

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

904

Does an AI disaster kill at least 100 people before 2040?

Jul 2, 10:54 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

80.73%chance

402183

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1325

889

By 2030, will at least one song in the Billboard Hot 100 have been primarily AI-generated?

Feb 7, 5:03 PMDec 30, 9:29 PM

87.4%chance

551967

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

956

Before 2029, will a 90 minute or longer film generated by AI produce over $100,000 in revenue?

Sep 20, 11:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

56%chance

161838

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1128

886

Will at least three "Will AI wipe out humanity" markets targeting timelines under 100 years be above 50%?

Jun 4, 12:37 PMDec 1, 4:59 AM

16.87%chance

211789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1398

837

Will non-profit funding for AI safety reach 100 billion US dollars in a year before 2030?

Nov 14, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

38.14%chance

5562

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1274

785

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