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Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

By EOY 2026, will it seem as if deep learning hit a wall by EOY 2025?

Nov 17, 12:46 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

13.34%chance

21053727

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3220

1309

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10%chance

8141187

OptionVotes

YES

NO

29364

2889

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

65.75%chance

3610759

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13856

7217

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Jun 25, 1:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.56%chance

173384

OptionVotes

NO

YES

243

41

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

272344

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2370

678

How Much Funding Will a Single Manifold Question Raise for My Antibiotic Research?💊🦠🚀

Feb 24, 12:05 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

131206

OptionProbability

(0, 200]

None

(200, 600]

(600, 1200]

(1200, 2500]

(2500, 5000]

(5000, 10000]

(10000, 15000]

(15000, 24000]

More than $24,000

37

24

9

5

4

4

4

4

4

4

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

904

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1235

577

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

35.15%chance

3500

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1358

736

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

14341

OptionProbability

Delaying superintelligence

Alignment research

Accelerating AI progress

72

41

9

China provides Russia >100k AI chips by 2030?

Oct 30, 12:17 PMJul 1, 10:59 PM

51.45%chance

4170

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1095

1027

Will accelerated AI development have a direct impact on development of catgirls?

Oct 4, 1:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.39%chance

1089

OptionVotes

NO

YES

184

156

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