AI Accelerator News

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Jan 1, 2:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.54%chance

4113694

OptionVotes

YES

14102

7091

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Jun 25, 1:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.56%chance

173384

OptionVotes

YES

243

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

272344

OptionVotes

YES

2370

678

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

May 23, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51370

OptionProbability

>=150K (deceleration scenario, like 2024)

>=225K( sustained current pace; rivals 2023)

>= 300K (acceleration; AI wave intensifies)

>= 400K (new all-time high, crisis territory)

<=150K (cuts collapse, would require a near-halt in H2)

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

70.56%chance

261072

OptionVotes

YES

1014

904

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

1235

577

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34%chance

6565

OptionVotes

YES

1393

718

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16353

OptionProbability

Delaying superintelligence

Alignment research

Accelerating AI progress

Will accelerated AI development have a direct impact on development of catgirls?

Oct 4, 1:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.39%chance

1089

OptionVotes

YES

184

156

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30?

May 4, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

75%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

AI Accelerator News

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Will Lean mathlib contain more than 10 million lines of code by 2030?

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Will accelerated AI development have a direct impact on development of catgirls?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30?

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