AI Accelerator News

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

Jun 25, 1:25 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

85.56%chance

173384

OptionVotes

YES

243

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

May 23, 4:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

102693

OptionProbability

>=150K (deceleration scenario, like 2024)

>=225K( sustained current pace; rivals 2023)

>= 300K (acceleration; AI wave intensifies)

<=150K (cuts collapse, would require a near-halt in H2)

>= 400K (new all-time high, crisis territory)

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Dec 2, 11:00 AMDec 10, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

272344

OptionVotes

YES

2370

678

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Dec 26, 8:33 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

72.07%chance

271122

OptionVotes

YES

994

954

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Oct 12, 1:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

52.67%chance

28878

OptionVotes

YES

1235

577

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

Oct 29, 1:31 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

34%chance

6565

OptionVotes

YES

1393

718

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Nov 30, 11:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16353

OptionProbability

Delaying superintelligence

Alignment research

Accelerating AI progress

Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30?

May 4, 8:22 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

38.18%chance

2113

OptionVotes

YES

148

Will accelerated AI development have a direct impact on development of catgirls?

Oct 4, 1:57 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.39%chance

1089

OptionVotes

YES

184

156

Will a teardown confirm domestically-manufactured HBM in a shipping Chinese AI accelerator by end of 2027?

Jun 30, 5:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

46.12%chance

360

OptionVotes

YES

111

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Apr 12, 6:42 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

242

OptionProbability

Not broken by 2030

Quantum computational (Shor's algorithm or variant requiring quantum hardware)

AI / Classical mathematical breakthrough (runs on classical hardware)

AI-accelerated quantum hybrid (AI reduces the problem, quantum hardware still essential)

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

May 4, 8:22 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

70%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

AI Accelerator News

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Prediction markets for AI Accelerator

Will AI accelerators improve in FLOPs/watt by 100x of an NVidia H100 by 2033?

How many tech workers will be laid off in 2026?

Will I Think Extropic AI Accelerated Timelines by EOY 2027?

Will AMD release a product that is competitive with NVIDIA in the AI hardware accelerator space before 2028?

Will a major cosmological simulation be AI-accelerated by the end of 2027?

Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?

If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?

Will US BIS announce a new export control update affecting AI accelerators before 2026-09-30?

Will accelerated AI development have a direct impact on development of catgirls?

Will a teardown confirm domestically-manufactured HBM in a shipping Chinese AI accelerator by end of 2027?

What will break Bitcoin's secp256k1 cryptography first, if broken before 2030?

Will NVIDIA share of AI accelerator revenue (calendar 2026 H2) exceed 80%?

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