AI Act News

EU Asserts Sovereign Right to Regulate Tech, Plans to Remove US Tariffs Following Trump’s Demand

3 months ago

Colorado Delays AI Bias Law to June 2026 as California Enforces CCPA AI Rules Oct. 1 and Expands Insurance AI Governance

3 months ago

Which AI future will we get?

May 1, 7:15 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

10514679

OptionProbability

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Jan 30, 2:53 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

779932

OptionProbability

Singularia: AI is autonomous and acts as "benevolent gods"

Futurama: AI tech produces great advances but our civilization recognizably continues

AI-Fizzle: AI tech doesn't have a huge impact

AI-Dystopia: AI tech produces great harm but our civilization recognizably continues

Paperclipalypse: AI causes our extinction or similar

Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025?

Mar 10, 9:11 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

64446

OptionProbability

25 Weekly AI Posts (AI#121 is published)

5 Childhood and Education Posts (C&E#12 is published)

12 Monthly Roundups (Monthly Roundup #37 is published)

52 Weekly AI Posts (AI#148 is published)

Reviews Open Socrates by Agnes Callard

Reviews Abundance by Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson

Publishes a comprehensive review of the EU AI Act

10 Childhood and Education Posts (C&E#17 is published)

5 Medical Roundups (Medical Roundup #8 is published)

5 Writing Posts (On Writing #5 is published)

100

What will happen first

Oct 17, 10:01 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

333770

OptionProbability

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated above ground in a test orchestrated by humans.

A nuclear missile is decommissioned in order for its fissile material to be used to power a nuclear power plant that provides power to an AI datacenter.

A nuke (of any size) will be detonated in a conflict or as an act of terror by humans.

An AI accident or malevolent act causes a nuke to detonate.

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

May 16, 10:35 PMDec 31, 11:21 PM

67.04%chance

303185

OptionVotes

YES

2582

1615

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

Jan 18, 7:12 AMJan 1, 6:59 AM

58.64%chance

10641

OptionVotes

YES

1191

840

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Jun 4, 10:32 PMJun 30, 11:59 PM

57%chance

9301

OptionVotes

YES

1151

869

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Feb 26, 1:53 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

55.31%chance

5218

OptionVotes

YES

252

179

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Nov 1, 7:46 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

70.79%chance

14181

OptionVotes

YES

1013

986

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Jun 15, 12:04 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

44.93%chance

7176

OptionVotes

YES

1107

903

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Oct 30, 11:42 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

50.47%chance

3107

OptionVotes

YES

1059

1041

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

Nov 27, 3:42 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

60%chance

457

OptionVotes

YES

129

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Prediction markets for AI Act

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Which AI future will we get?

Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?

Which of these writing accomplishments will Zvi Mowshowitz achieve in 2025?

What will happen first

Will the US Government issue a statement criticising the Code of Practice of the EU AI Act in 2025?

AI Warning Signs: Will any country threaten or commit an act of aggression due to an AI capabilities race before 2030?

My voice AI covertly acts as me in pharmacy calls by mid 2029

Major AI companies continue experiencing problems with public due to AI (based on transformer language model) overcome behavior limitations and acts "strange" by the end of 2027

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Will there be an Ozymandias-Beihai act motivated by AI risks by 2035?

Will a Russian actor be publicly attributed with stealing weights from a frontier AI developer before 2030?

Will an AI system legally act as a healthcare proxy anywhere in the US by 2032?

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