AI Agenda News

Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?

Apr 5, 6:51 PMNov 5, 11:59 PM

47.29%chance

336202

OptionVotes

YES

1056

947

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

YES

1912

523

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

67.37%chance

222338

OptionVotes

YES

1439

697

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

29%chance

171855

OptionVotes

YES

1567

640

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Apr 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

547

To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]

May 29, 12:37 PMMay 29, 11:00 AM

171088

OptionProbability

8) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 1 year

2) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 1 year later

7) At least one paper from the agenda gets published at a top conference or has a companion LessWrong post with >100 upvotes within 6 months

1) I reflectively endorse focussing on it 6 months later

3) I consider the work produced useful 6 months later

6) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 1 year

9) At least three papers from the agenda get published at top conferences or have companion LessWrong posts with >100 upvotes within 2 years

4) I consider the work produced useful 1 year later

5) A prominent figure in AI safety publicly endorses the agenda or some research produced by it within 6 months

Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?

Feb 15, 11:44 AMDec 30, 11:59 PM

7.2%chance

19903

OptionVotes

YES

359

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

1037

924

Is Anthropic woke?

Feb 26, 1:34 AMJul 1, 4:59 AM

83.78%chance

9462

OptionVotes

YES

227

When will Bryan Caplan's graphic novel, Amore Infernale, be released?

Dec 24, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3386

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030, later, or never

2025

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

181

103

Is a major protest(s) expected to occur in Indonesia before September 2026?

Mar 17, 6:53 AMAug 31, 11:59 PM

26%chance

8207

OptionVotes

YES

169

AI Agenda News

Prediction markets for AI Agenda

Prediction markets for AI Agenda

Prediction markets for AI Agenda

Gas exceeds $4.50, and democrats control both House and Senate?

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

To what extent will Developmental Cognitive Interpretability be successful [Read Updated Description]

Will Prediction Markets be banned in the US before 31 December, 2026?

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Is Anthropic woke?

When will Bryan Caplan's graphic novel, Amore Infernale, be released?

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Is a major protest(s) expected to occur in Indonesia before September 2026?

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