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Prediction markets for AI Agenda

Will there be a coherent AI safety movement with leaders and an agenda in May 2029?

May 23, 1:18 PMMay 31, 3:59 AM

78.52%chance

534606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1912

523

8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.93%chance

171609

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

980

2. Details of SSI’s research and technology will leak. The big labs will make meaningful adjustments [See full title!]

Dec 28, 11:21 AMDec 29, 11:20 AM

36.9%chance

151455

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1310

766

ChatGPT's tariff formula the first ASI attack?

Apr 6, 10:28 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.24%chance

131140

OptionVotes

YES

NO

547

18

In 5 years will I think the org Conjecture was net good for alignment?

Dec 18, 8:22 PMDec 18, 11:59 PM

57.09%chance

24626

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1037

924

When will Bryan Caplan's graphic novel, Amore Infernale, be released?

Dec 24, 12:35 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3386

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2029

2030, later, or never

2025

47

25

10

9

7

1

Will ARC's Heuristic Arguments research substantially advance AI alignment before 2027?

Sep 15, 1:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

25.79%chance

6251

OptionVotes

YES

NO

181

103

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