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Prediction markets for AI Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3977464

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

59

24

9

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?

Jan 31, 1:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

52.58%chance

345938

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

950

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

38.49%chance

505483

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1264

791

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

69.97%chance

184299

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1526

655

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.07%chance

161466

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1386

752

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

51.46%chance

12934

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

975

Will I automate Vanguard rebalancing with an AI agent by 2026?

Jan 17, 7:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

34.13%chance

6605

OptionVotes

YES

NO

954

180

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

Will "Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 5:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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