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Prediction markets for AI Agent

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3573975

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

77

70

61

55

25

19

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

52.32%chance

394093

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

955

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

70.91%chance

163619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

641

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?

Jan 31, 1:19 PMMar 31, 11:59 PM

43.23%chance

172811

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1146

873

Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents in February 2026?

Jan 31, 1:18 PMFeb 28, 11:59 PM

25.49%chance

132211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1710

585

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

35.91%chance

151307

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1360

766

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

26.72%chance

191273

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1656

604

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

57%chance

11831

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1154

872

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029

Dec 23, 8:21 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

54.55%chance

3121

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1351

1158

Will "Ctrl-Z: Controlling AI Agents via Resampling" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Dec 11, 5:29 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1000

1000

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