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Prediction markets for AI Agent Leaderboard

When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR?

May 27, 5:02 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

1518931

OptionProbability

2030 or later

2027

2026

2028

2029

2025

2024

25

20

18

16

16

4

1

By when will AIs perform at least as well as humans on GAIA?

Feb 21, 4:36 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

269278

OptionProbability

Before 2035-01-01

Before 2030-01-01

Before 2028-01-01

Before 2027-01-01

Before 2024-06-01

Before 2025-01-01

Before 2026-01-01

97

96

93

92

0

0

0

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Which company's model will be #1 on Artificial Analysis at the end of September 2026

Aug 26, 4:48 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

171681

OptionProbability

Anthropic

OpenAI

Google

Meta

xAI (e.g., Grok)

Moonshot

Z.ai

DeepSeek

Other

89

7

1

1

1

0

0

0

0

In what year will Remote Labor Index automation rate reaches 80%?

Dec 12, 11:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

11475

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2028

2025

2029

Other

2030 or later

71

13

10

2

2

2

1

Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026?

Mar 28, 4:17 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

99%chance

7453

OptionVotes

NO

YES

331

1

Will open models be able to solve Navier Stokes by the end of 2028 for under $1000 in compute?

Sep 11, 10:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

85.25%chance

9269

OptionVotes

NO

YES

240

42

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