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Prediction markets for AI Agents

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

239556

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Coding agents will flip the initiative

“Live learning” will be standard

The multi-agent paradigm will win

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

79

72

67

63

56

49

30

Will a paper solely authored by an AI research agent receive at least 100 citations by EOY 2025?

Aug 15, 12:57 AMJan 1, 2:59 AM

6.88%chance

455745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3680

272

Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025?

Jan 23, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.16%chance

333791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

498

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

54.88%chance

242972

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1103

907

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?

Jan 21, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

32.17%chance

212448

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1452

689

Which company has best Computer Agent AI model end of 2025? (Computer Agent Arena Leaderboard)

Apr 8, 6:01 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

272003

OptionProbability

OpenAI

Google

Anthropic

xAI

Other

Meta

Alibaba

DeepSeek

44

29

12

9

3

1

1

1

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

38.69%chance

11944

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1259

794

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Will @Mira do anything publicly impressive with AI agents by EOY 2026?

Feb 12, 10:21 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.06%chance

12213

OptionVotes

YES

NO

153

66

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will "A basic systems architecture for AI agents th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 24, 2:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.17%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

978

Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? 🤖🖥💥

Feb 20, 12:39 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

59.81%chance

322

OptionVotes

NO

YES

122

82

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