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Prediction markets for AI Agents

AI coding agent forecasts from my blog post, through July 4, 2026

Jul 5, 7:26 AMJul 4, 11:59 PM

3473575

OptionProbability

Coding agents will close the loop

Recursively improving coding agents will succeed in the market

Coding agents will flip the initiative

The specific model will not matter as much as today; the network of agents will be important

The multi-agent paradigm will win

“Live learning” will be standard

xAI will gain a sizable lead in model quality

80

72

70

61

55

25

20

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2026?

Jan 21, 3:07 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

11.99%chance

336350

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2710

369

4. Web agents will go mainstream, becoming the next major killer application in consumer AI.

Dec 27, 8:15 AMJan 3, 10:59 PM

45.1%chance

295557

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1103

906

Computer-use AI agent gets scammed / falls victim to a phishing attack, in 2025?

Jan 23, 6:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.16%chance

333791

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2010

498

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?

Aug 26, 8:36 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

70.91%chance

163619

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1561

641

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2027?

Aug 26, 8:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

45.56%chance

383542

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1093

915

Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?

Aug 26, 8:37 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

79%chance

61726

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1940

516

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Oct 9, 11:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.45%chance

171203

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1586

631

Before July 2026, will I personally see an online ad which is obviously a prompt injection attack for AI agents?

Jan 29, 7:31 AMJun 2, 6:59 AM

44.35%chance

131087

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1140

913

Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Sep 2, 6:22 PMJan 1, 6:59 PM

59.87%chance

10781

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1224

822

Voice activated text selection supported by AI agent on Android by mid-2026

Oct 14, 3:18 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

53%chance

3151

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1062

942

Will "A basic systems architecture for AI agents th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Sep 24, 2:37 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

12.17%chance

1150

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1149

978

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