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Prediction markets for AI Agents Competitions

When will AIs be good at solving complex problems? (read description)

Mar 28, 9:19 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

138716

OptionProbability

2027

2026

2025

2024

74

59

45

0

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

Oct 10, 11:14 PMJan 18, 7:59 AM

397377

OptionProbability

2026

2027

2028

2025

2029

After 2030

2024

2030

70

13

7

6

6

5

4

4

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2030 (start of 2031)

May 29, 5:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.46%chance

183013

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1913

523

Will an AI run a factory by the end of 2028 (start of 2029)

May 29, 5:54 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

12.71%chance

111813

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2620

382

Anthropic Removes Claude Code From Every Plan Except Max in 2026

Apr 23, 6:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.6%chance

16471

OptionVotes

YES

NO

175

57

Will AI achieve AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) by 2030?

Mar 4, 6:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

52%chance

10304

OptionVotes

NO

YES

104

96

Will the Yankees finish first in the AL East in 2026?

Mar 26, 2:31 PMSep 30, 11:59 PM

71.38%chance

5111

OptionVotes

NO

YES

158

63

When will a humanoid robot beat a human tennis pro in a singles match

Mar 16, 5:10 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

160

OptionProbability

Before 2045

Before 2040

Before 2029

Before 2030

Before 2035

Before 2028

Before 2027

76

66

50

50

50

34

24

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