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Prediction markets for AI Alive

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2060?

Feb 26, 6:16 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

11.35%chance

210282771

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4387

1304

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

23.47%chance

11615920

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2089

579

Will Eliezer believe in mankind's survival again?

Mar 10, 5:32 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

55.18%chance

11414373

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1816

1804

Will AI wipe out all biological life on Earth before 2100?

Apr 7, 2:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

7.8%chance

345924

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2398

778

If AI kills everyone, how will it do it?

Apr 4, 5:28 PMApr 11, 5:17 PM

625332

OptionProbability

Gradual resource monopolization / slow squeeze

Engineered pandemic

Other

Persuasion / memetic warfare / neurotech

Environment becomes uninhabitable

Novel physics / unknown unknowns

Nanotech

Nuclear war

Other biotech/bioweapon

Ecosystem collapse via synthetic organisms

Infrastructure / cyber collapse

Drones or other macro robots

Chemical weapons

24

14

11

9

9

6

6

5

4

3

3

3

3

Will we have AGI before a Mars colony?

Jun 25, 2:14 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

79.59%chance

393999

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1975

506

If humanity is still alive in 2035, what will be the reason?

Jul 2, 2:51 PMDec 30, 11:59 PM

293032

OptionProbability

AI winter

Benign superintelligence

Other

Effective international moratorium

33

27

23

17

Will Humans invent immortality by 2100

Jan 11, 11:43 PMJan 18, 11:59 PM

43.42%chance

212542

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1152

744

Will George Soros live to see the 2029 US presidential inauguration?

Mar 23, 3:54 AMJan 20, 12:00 PM

56.11%chance

42460

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1131

884

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

28.73%chance

19813

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1011

916

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Jan 10, 7:54 PMJan 17, 10:59 PM

23.46%chance

23806

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1178

923

Will my p(doom) be above 10% in 20 years (2043)?

Dec 27, 7:40 AMDec 28, 4:59 AM

36.02%chance

21646

OptionVotes

YES

NO

986

982

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