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Prediction markets for AI Art Video Generator

Will Grok make a "really good movie" in 2027?

Oct 10, 2:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

9.8%chance

365077

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3049

331

[Carlini questions] AI system can produce a high-quality live-action hour-long movie given a rough script

Mar 24, 2:23 AMJan 1, 11:59 PM

8363

OptionProbability

By Jan 1st 2030

By Jan 1st 2029

By Jan 1st 2028

By Jan 1st 2027

By Jan 1st 2026

66

51

40

22

7

Will MoMA acquire a major generative AI artwork before 2027?

Feb 16, 11:59 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

51%chance

10188

OptionVotes

NO

YES

102

98

When will Genie-like methods be used to train a frontier model on computer-use tasks?

Sep 17, 11:10 PMDec 31, 11:43 PM

2130

OptionProbability

2029

2027

49

39

Is Jose Luis Ricon FUNNIER than JOSCHA BACH, jose luis ricon, razib khan, @repligate/janus , alexey guzey, qiaochu yuan?

May 2, 4:30 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

40.19%chance

122

OptionVotes

YES

NO

122

82

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